The United Nations' World Food Programme and Food and Agriculture Organization have issued their first joint appeal for funds to avert a global hunger crisis before it happens, as a potentially strong El Niño event looms. The agencies are $167 million short of the $202 million needed to help 8.8 million people with drought-resistant seeds, flood defences, water storage systems and cash transfers, citing research that every $1 spent in anticipatory action saves $7 in humanitarian relief costs.
El Niño returns with potential for severe impact
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in the US said El Niño conditions had formed in the Pacific last week and carried a 63% chance of being very strong by the peak near the end of the year. Australia's Bureau of Meteorology followed on Tuesday, warning it would worsen extreme heat and wildfires. Some scientists have informally dubbed it a super or Godzilla El Niño based on the expected size of the temperature anomaly.
Scientists caution that climatic shifts are only one factor among many, but at the extreme end, El Niño can spell apocalyptic suffering. In the worst El Niño years in the 19th century, the death toll from famines in India, China and Brazil stretched into the tens of millions. There is some evidence it set the scene for the French Revolution in the 18th century and helped the Spanish conquer the Inca empire in the 16th century.
Compounding crises heighten vulnerability
Sonali McDermid, a climate scientist at New York University, expressed concern about the confluence of multiple stressors happening at the same time. About half of the world's 68 poorest countries are experiencing debt distress or at high risk of it, the International Monetary Fund warned in March, and high energy prices and restricted fertiliser supplies have weakened buffers against weather shocks. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network projected 115-125 million people would need urgent food assistance by December, with risks of famine in Sudan, South Sudan and Somalia.
Anne Jellema, executive director of 350.org, said many of the African and Asian countries most exposed have also been hit hard by fertiliser shocks and have high levels of food import dependence and debt stress. That means El Niño removes the last domestic lifeline for people who can't access markets, increasingly can't get humanitarian aid, and can't move around freely.
Global effects and the need for action
El Niño is not expected to lead to worse outcomes for crops at a global scale, as gains in some regions typically offset losses in others, but the losers will include those least able to cope. Shockwaves are also set to be felt in the rich world as El Niño brings stronger heatwaves and wider spread of some vector-borne diseases. Its arrival persistently slows improvements in mortality even in wealthy countries such as the US, Australia, Japan and South Korea, according to a study published in January in Nature Climate Change.
Deepened by geopolitical tensions, high energy and fertiliser prices and fragile supply chains, El Niño-related shocks may be increasing the likelihood of compound and non-linear systemic impacts, a study by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre warned on Monday, with knock-on effects that run the gamut of economic sectors connected to the natural world.
The World Meteorological Organization said its forecasts are more a call to action before hazards escalate into crises. Its secretary general, Celeste Saulo, urged the world to intensify efforts to build multi-hazard early warning systems, as only 128 countries report that they have such systems in place. Climate campaigners have called for the cancellation of global south debt and the funding of social protections through windfall taxes on excess profits of oil and gas companies.
