Climate Crisis Emerges as Major Threat to Democratic Elections Worldwide
Democracy faces a mounting threat from the climate crisis, with new analysis documenting how elections are increasingly shaped not only by political forces but also by floods, wildfires and extreme weather events. Research from the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance reveals that at least 94 elections and referendums across 52 countries have been disrupted by climate-related impacts over the last two decades.
Global Disruption of Electoral Processes
In 2024 alone, natural hazards disrupted 23 elections in 18 countries, including Brazil, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Senegal. These disruptions occurred through various mechanisms including damaged infrastructure, displaced voters, and last-minute changes to electoral processes. As climate risks intensify, the pressure on already fragile democratic systems – particularly in Africa and Asia – is forecast to grow significantly.
This groundbreaking report represents the first global analysis of how natural hazards are systematically affecting elections worldwide. The findings highlight more than 100 climate-related crises that have impacted democratic processes, with researchers warning that the situation will likely worsen as extreme weather events become more frequent and severe.
Specific Examples of Election Disruption
The report documents numerous cases where climate events have directly affected electoral outcomes. During Mozambique's 2019 election, Cyclone Idai submerged thousands of houses, schools, power lines and roads, forcing people to relocate to safer locations. The report states these events "affected the results of the presidential election and the distribution of legislative and provincial seats."
Another significant example occurred during Senegal's parliamentary election in November 2024, when severe flooding required firefighters to help transport election observers to polling stations. Heatwaves present another recurring problem, with at least 10 elections since 2022 affected by dangerously hot weather.
Heatwaves and Urban Voting Challenges
Among the heat-affected elections was the general election in the Philippines last year, when intense temperatures caused vote-counting machines to overheat on election day and eject previously accepted ballots. Heat poses a particular threat to elections in the world's megacities, which have populations exceeding 10 million residents.
The Nigerian city of Lagos now experiences 89 days annually where local temperatures are significantly above pre-climate change levels, creating substantial challenges for electoral processes. These urban heat islands amplify temperature extremes, making voting conditions increasingly difficult and potentially dangerous for both voters and election officials.
Expert Recommendations and Adaptation Strategies
Sarah Birch, the report's co-author and a professor of politics at King's College London, emphasized that elections should be timed to avoid predictable climate threats. "Elections should be held when disasters are least likely," she stated, noting that even the United States continues to stage elections in November during its hurricane season.
The report advocates for election organizers to work closely with meteorological experts, environmental protection bodies, and disaster relief agencies to mitigate climate impacts. Some regions have already implemented adaptive measures: election staff in Peru have received training in disaster risk management, while Alberta's provincial legislature in Canada will move its traditional May election date to October next year to avoid the wildfire season.
Building Electoral Resilience
Ferran Martínez i Coma, a professor of government at Australia's Griffith University, emphasized the growing importance of preparation: "As natural hazards increase, training and contingency planning is more important than ever. Preparation is key to the integrity and resilience of the elections."
The research underscores that climate adaptation must become a central consideration for electoral management bodies worldwide. With democratic processes increasingly vulnerable to environmental disruptions, comprehensive planning and international cooperation will be essential to safeguard electoral integrity in the face of escalating climate challenges.
