England's Send Overhaul: Four Scenarios for Children with Special Needs
Approximately one million state school pupils in England are currently classified as having special educational needs, a figure that underscores the scale of the government's ongoing reforms to the Send system. The changes, detailed in white papers and consultation documents, will not fully take effect until 2030, meaning their impact will vary significantly based on a child's age and current support arrangements. This analysis explores four likely scenarios for how children and their families might be affected by the overhaul of special educational needs and disabilities provision.
Scenario 1: A 12-Year-Old with an EHCP in an Independent Special School
For a 12-year-old child who has an existing education health and care plan and attends an independent special school, often transported by taxi, the government has made a key pledge. Under its transition programme, children with EHCPs in special schools provided or funded by local authorities will be allowed to remain in place until they complete their education, unless families seek changes. However, schools will soon face fee limits on what they can charge local authorities, raising concerns that some providers might withdraw from the sector, potentially disrupting placements. School transport, funded separately from local authority budgets, will remain unaffected by the Send changes. For children with EHCPs in mainstream secondary schools in 2029-30, their plans will stay in place until they reach age 16.
Summary: No immediate change is expected, but the impact of fee limits remains uncertain.
Scenario 2: A Five-Year-Old with an EHCP in Mainstream Primary School
Children in year 2 or earlier, such as a five-year-old in year 1 of a mainstream primary school, will be directly affected by the changes introduced in 2030. Their EHCPs will remain until they transition to secondary school in year 7 in 2029-30 or later, at which point their needs will be reassessed. Those requiring specialist provision packages will receive new-style EHCPs and may move to a special school or a specialist unit within a mainstream school, with family agreement. Others whose needs can be met with additional support, like speech and language therapy, will transition to an individual support plan, agreed between school and family, providing access to therapy commissioned by schools or local authorities. Parents of these children will have priority in applying to their preferred school during the transition from primary to secondary. However, moving to an ISP means appeals will initially go through a school complaints system rather than independent tribunals, potentially offering less legal protection.
Summary: These children could face significant changes and reduced legal safeguards.
Scenario 3: An Eight-Year-Old Without an EHCP
About a million state school pupils have special educational needs but lack EHCPs, often receiving patchy and erratic support due to shrinking local authority workforces and school budgets. Under the reforms, these children will gain a statutory right to be assessed for an ISP. If they need targeted support, schools can provide or commission specialist help using extra funding. For greater support, termed targeted plus, they can access a wider range, including local authority specialists, therapists, and alternative provision in specialist units. The school complaints system will include a Send expert, and reforms will impose new legal responsibilities on schools. By 2030, all secondary schools will have an inclusion base for pupils with special needs.
Summary: Provision is expected to improve for this group.
Scenario 4: Future Children Entering the State School System
Children born since last September will enter reception classes in 2030, after most changes are implemented. Those with heightened special needs or disabilities will encounter a system where the proportion of children with EHCPs is forecast to remain stable at around 5% nationally from 2025 to 2035. From 2030, EHCPs will be granted based on specialist provision packages, standardising support thresholds similar to NHS clinical pathways. Families denied these packages can appeal to a Send tribunal. If needs do not warrant a new-style EHCP, local authorities will work with schools to ensure support through ISPs, which should be simpler to arrange than current EHCPs. New statutory expectations for schools, guidance on reasonable adjustments under the Equality Act, and inclusion bases will enhance support within mainstream schools.
Summary: More options and structured support will be available.
The Send reforms aim to streamline support for children with special educational needs in England, but their phased implementation means outcomes will vary widely. Families, educators, and policymakers must navigate these changes carefully to ensure all children receive the assistance they require.
