James Cameron's cinematic behemoth, Avatar: Fire and Ash, has officially joined the elite club of films to gross over $1,000,000,000 at the global box office. The milestone was reached during its third weekend of release, cementing its place as one of only three Hollywood movies from 2025 to achieve the feat last year. However, this financial success is shadowed by a critical mauling and the immense pressure on its performance to secure the future of the entire saga.
A Billion-Dollar Benchmark With Caveats
Released before Christmas 2025, the third instalment in the Pandora epic continues to dominate headlines into January 2026. Its journey to $1.1 billion (as of early January) places it behind only China's animated Ne Zha 2 ($2.44bn) and Disney's Zootropolis 2 ($1.59bn) in the 2025 global rankings. The other Hollywood film to pass the billion mark was the live-action Lilo & Stitch remake ($1.04bn).
Despite the colossal revenue, the film's launch was the smallest opening weekend for the series so far. Furthermore, with a reported budget soaring between $350 and $400 million, making it one of the most expensive films ever produced, mere profitability isn't enough. To justify the planned Avatar 4 and 5, industry analysts suggest Fire and Ash needs to replicate its predecessors and soar past the $2 billion mark, a height reached by both the original Avatar and Avatar: The Way of Water.
Critical Reception: A 'Gigantically Dull' Spectacle?
The critical consensus for Avatar: Fire and Ash has been notably cooler than for the earlier films. It currently holds a 66% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, a drop from The Way of Water's 76% and the original's 81%.
Reviews have been harsh. The Telegraph's Robbie Collin awarded it one star, calling it "mind-numbing" and "like watching £300m of glitter tipped into a fish tank". The Guardian's Peter Bradshaw gave it two stars, labelling it a "gigantically dull hunk of nonsense". Critics widely panned its perceived lack of narrative originality, with many noting a "copy and paste" feel compared to the second film.
Yet, as film critic James King noted to Metro, the franchise has proven itself "critic-proof." He argued it has entered the realm of cultural traditions like Bond or Harry Potter, becoming a must-see cinema event for millions, regardless of reviews.
The $2 Billion Question and Cameron's Future
The central mystery now is whether Fire and Ash can leg out to $2 billion. Proponents point to the franchise's historic "long legs" and impressively slim week-on-week audience drop-offs. The Way of Water hit $2bn in about six weeks, and if the third film maintains momentum, it could follow suit.
"There's no question in my mind that it will make $2bn as clearly there's still an appetite for them," said podcast host and super-fan Josh Glenn. However, others are sceptical. Film critic Barry Levitt predicts it will "come up just short", while screenwriter Dan Kelly also fears it may fall shy of the target based on its opening trajectory.
The financial outcome is directly tied to the fate of Avatar 4 and 5. James Cameron has previously stated that Disney's greenlight depends on Fire and Ash's performance. Intriguingly, even before the film's release, the 71-year-old director hinted he may scale back his day-to-day involvement in future sequels, potentially handing over more directorial duties to trusted collaborators while retaining an overarching creative role.
This prospect divides fans. For some, the trilogy feels complete, and they would prefer Cameron to explore new stories. For others, the idea of an Avatar film without Cameron's hands-on direction is unthinkable. As journalist Andy Gaudion put it, there's a sense Cameron is "starting to feel cornered by his own creation."
Ultimately, the future of Pandora rests on the continued appeal of its visual wonders to global audiences. Avatar: Fire and Ash is in cinemas now, and its box office run in the coming weeks will write the next chapter for Jake Sully and the Na'vi.
