The UK housing market is 'still in the grip' of an Iran war slump as higher mortgage rates and inflation fears weigh on buyer and seller demand, according to a market survey by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS).
Buyer Demand Remains Weak
The RICS new buyer index stood at negative 34 per cent in April, improving slightly from -40 per cent in March but still indicating widespread reluctance among Brits to enter the chaotic housing market. Agreed sales also remained weak, slipping slightly to -36 per cent from -35 per cent in March.
Homeowners Hesitate to Sell
Brits are also hesitating to put their homes on the market, the survey revealed, as weak demand has seen average house prices slip in recent months. Sales expectations for the next three months stood at negative 32 per cent in April, while a softer -6 per cent 12-month outlook suggests Brits are hopeful of improving market conditions.
House Prices Falling
RICS headline house price indicator slipped to -34 per cent from -25 per cent in March. Prices fell the quickest in London and the South East, where values are typically higher. Property experts have little hope that the market will improve in the near term, as the index of three-month price expectations remained negative at -38 per cent, though slightly improved from March's -45 per cent.
Rental Market Outpaces Supply
In the UK rental market, demand is outpacing supply. While tenant demand jumped to 14 per cent, landlord instructions for new tenants remained negative at -17 per cent.
Expert Insights
Tarrant Parsons, head of market research at the RICS, said these results show that the UK housing market is 'still in the grip of macro headwinds' caused by the Iran war. Expectations that interest rates will stay higher for longer, fuelled by the Bank of England's suggestion that it may hike later this year, mean Brits are holding out for rosier mortgage deals.
'Until there is a clearer path for inflation and borrowing costs, activity and sentiment look set to remain subdued, particularly across southern England and London where affordability pressures are most acute,' Parsons said.
Political Risk
Property experts have previously suggested that these areas are seeing the worst conditions because typically high prices mean homeowners are more exposed to stamp duty. Last month, property experts Knight Frank halved its expectations of house price growth this year to 1.5 per cent.
Tom Bill, head of residential research at Knight Frank, said the prospect of a challenge to Keir Starmer's position as Prime Minister could pile further pressures on the housing market. He said: 'After mortgage costs were pushed higher by the Middle East conflict and associated energy price shock, the prospect of a new government to the left of Keir Starmer brings its own inflationary concerns and has squeezed buyers further. Those sitting on mortgage offers that predate the conflict are keen to transact, but downwards pressure on prices will increase as offers lapse in coming months.'
