A new study reveals that economic inequality contributes to more than 100,000 additional deaths from heat and cold across Europe each year. The research, published by scientists at the Barcelona Institute for Global Health, found that lowering inequality to match Europe's most equal region, Slovenia, could reduce temperature-related mortality by up to 30%, saving approximately 109,866 lives annually.
Record Heat and Rising Concerns
The findings come after the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service ranked last month as the third-hottest April on record globally, with Spain experiencing its hottest April ever. The return of the El Niño weather pattern, which may be unusually strong, has raised fears of a brutal European summer in 2026.
The study analyzed daily mortality data from 654 European regions between 2000 and 2019, estimating attributable deaths by modeling health outcomes under best and worst economic scenarios. Researchers found that high death tolls from heat and cold were linked to poverty, inability to heat homes, and material deprivation.
Impact of Deprivation
Cutting severe material and social deprivation across Europe to the level of central Switzerland, the least deprived region, would prevent 59,000 temperature-related deaths. Conversely, increasing deprivation to the level of southeast Romania, the most deprived region, would result in 101,000 additional deaths.
Lead author Blanca Paniello-Castillo emphasized that integrating equity into policies could address both inequality and climate health impacts simultaneously. She stated, 'If the equity perspective would be more included in policies – European, national, local, whatever – we would be hitting two goals at the same time.'
Regional Disparities
Richer regions experienced fewer cold deaths due to better-insulated homes, healthcare, and lower energy poverty, but paradoxically suffered more heat deaths, likely due to the urban heat island effect. Cities with greater wealth face higher temperatures from asphalt and lack of green spaces.
Usama Bilal, an epidemiologist at Drexel University, noted the study's robust methods but cautioned that separating poverty from climatic factors is challenging, especially given the correlation between warmer climates and poverty in parts of Europe.
Cold vs. Heat Threat
Currently, cold poses a greater threat to human health than heat, but scientists predict this will reverse as global heating accelerates. Temperatures in Europe have risen by 0.56°C per decade since the mid-1990s, faster than any other continent, due to fossil fuel pollution.
The study's findings align with warnings from the EU's scientific advisers that Europe is failing to adapt to climate shifts. Malcolm Mistry, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, noted that fuel poverty rates have risen sharply since 2021-22, suggesting the estimated death toll may be conservative.
