As the global elite prepares to convene in the Swiss Alps, a stark warning has been issued: the world's greatest immediate danger is economic warfare between major powers. This is the central finding of the World Economic Forum's latest Global Risks Report, published ahead of its annual meeting in Davos next week.
Short-Term Threats: Trade as a Weapon
The survey of 1,300 business leaders, academics, and civil society figures reveals a precarious landscape. The most pressing risk over the next two years, identified by 18% of respondents, is "geoeconomic confrontation". This reflects a year marked by aggressive tariff policies and the weaponisation of finance, such as the freezing of Russian assets after the invasion of Ukraine.
Closely following is "state-based armed conflict" at 14%, a concern amplified by the ongoing war in Ukraine. The report warns that the rules-based international order is "under siege," with trade, finance, and technology increasingly used as instruments of influence and coercion.
Recent events underscore this trend. The acknowledgement by the US president that military action in Venezuela aimed to secure oil resources, and G7 finance ministers' urgent talks on diversifying supply chains for rare earth metals away from China, highlight growing clashes over critical resources.
The Decadal View: An Environmental Crisis
When the timeframe extends to ten years, the outlook shifts dramatically towards environmental catastrophe. The top three severe risks are all climate-related: "extreme weather events," "biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse," and "critical change to Earth systems."
"Unlike in the two-year outlook, where these have declined in rankings, the existential nature of environmental risks means they remain as the top priorities over the next decade," the report states. This presents a stark dichotomy for global leaders: navigating immediate economic and political battles while the planet's long-term health deteriorates.
Davos 2025: A Forum for Dialogue Amid Division
Next week's summit, under the theme "a spirit of dialogue," will gather over 60 heads of state or government, including German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. However, the star guest, US President Donald Trump, embodies the very risks outlined in the report.
His administration's trade wars, withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement, and recent attacks on the independence of the Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, exemplify the fracturing of global cooperation. The attendance of UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Business Secretary Peter Kyle will place a British focus on these multilateral challenges.
The stage is set for a pivotal meeting where the world's most powerful figures must confront a dual crisis: the immediate fires of economic conflict and the slow-burning emergency of climate change.
