Spain has joined a growing list of European countries, including France, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Romania, in restricting access to Polymarket, a leading prediction market platform. The Spanish Ministry of Consumer Rights has also blocked Kalshi, another major prediction site, as it investigates whether these platforms are violating the country's gambling regulations by operating without a proper licence.
Investigation Launched
On Tuesday, the ministry announced it had initiated disciplinary proceedings against both Polymarket and Kalshi. The platforms allow users to place bets on a wide range of outcomes, from weather events to political elections. The ministry alleges that these sites lack the necessary administrative authorisation to operate in Spain. As a result, access to the platforms has been blocked domestically until the investigation concludes, which is expected to take between three and four months.
European Context
This action by Spanish regulators is the latest in a series of conflicts between prediction market sites and gambling watchdogs across Europe. In recent years, as prediction markets have grown into a multibillion-dollar industry, they have faced accusations of immorality and insider trading. Several European countries, including France, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Romania, have blocked or limited access to Polymarket, citing concerns over unlicensed gambling.
Spanish officials have framed their decision in a similar light. According to the ministry, prediction markets are considered gambling in Spain when bets are placed on uncertain future outcomes. Therefore, operating such platforms requires obtaining a specific administrative licence. To secure this licence, operators must comply with safeguards such as identity verification systems and mechanisms to prevent access by minors, self-excluded individuals, or those banned from gambling.
Notification Attempts
The ministry stated that it attempted to notify Polymarket and Kalshi before blocking the US-based companies, but these efforts proved unsuccessful. Neither Polymarket nor Kalshi responded to requests for comment from the Guardian.
Global Scrutiny
Scrutiny of prediction markets has steadily increased, particularly after it emerged that some users placed substantial bets before the US-Israeli war in Iran and US military action in Venezuela. Internationally, countries like Indonesia have also banned Polymarket, while Brazil blocked more than two dozen prediction market platforms earlier this year. In the United States, Minnesota became the first state to sign a law banning prediction market sites from operating, effective August. The US administration responded by suing the state, accusing it of undermining federal regulatory authority. Additionally, 14 other US states have introduced legislation aimed at regulating the booming industry, according to the National Conference on State Legislators.
