The 2022 World Cup final was decided by a penalty shootout after Argentina and France drew 3-3. Argentina won 4-2 on penalties, taking the title. Even outside shootouts, a single spot kick can decide a game, making any advantage crucial. So what does research say about the best penalty strategy?
Go first, or win the toss
Research based on shootouts at major competitions from 1970 to 2003 shows the team taking the first penalty wins 60.5% of the time. After a 2003 rule change allowing the coin-toss winner to choose between going first or second, about 60% of teams that won the toss won the shootout, compared to 51% for teams that shot first.
Importance of a good run-up
A 2020 paper by Mikael Jamil and colleagues analyzed over 1,700 penalties across four seasons from 2015-16 to 2018-19 in England, Spain, Germany, and Italy. A long run-up (more than six steps) was associated with successful penalties in all four leagues. A medium run-up (two to five steps) was also successful everywhere except Italy. Short run-ups were not a significant advantage anywhere.
Power vs placement
A 2002 paper suggests shots at about 75% of maximum power have the highest success. In Jamil's 2020 paper, both placed shots (inside of foot) and powerful shots (instep) were associated with success in Spain, Italy, and Germany, but in England only placement was significant. Panenka-style chips were not favoured anywhere.
Shot position
A 2016 study by Carlos Almeida and co-authors of 536 spot kicks from the Champions League and Europa League confirms a trade-off: shots to the upper section are harder to save but more likely to miss. Most players aim low. Shooting down the middle can be effective: Premier League stats show aiming high down the middle has a 97.8% success rate, while low shots to the middle succeed 80.2% of the time. Jamil's 2020 paper found shooting towards the middle was associated with success in the Premier League, while bottom corners worked in other leagues.
Goalkeeper behaviour
Goalkeepers almost always dive left or right, even though 20-30% of shots go down the middle. Researchers suggest a bias towards action: goalkeepers prefer diving to staying central. Exceptions include Andrew Redmayne predicting a Panenka in the 2019 A-League Men grand final, and Édouard Mendy doing the same in the 2024 Africa Cup of Nations final.
Unpredictability
Game theory applies: if everyone shot centrally, goalkeepers would adapt. Researchers argue one of the best strategies is to be unpredictable and regularly change approach.
