The Socceroos are on the brink of a landmark achievement: a place in the World Cup knockout rounds for only the third time. A draw against Paraguay in their final Group D match on Friday will be enough to secure second place in the group and a favourable last-32 clash with Belgium, Iran, Egypt or New Zealand in Dallas, with seven days' rest. A win would send them into that fixture with renewed confidence after a sluggish first-half performance against the USA.
Popovic Focuses on Winning, Not Permutations
“It’s a wonderful challenge, it’s what we’re here for,” said coach Tony Popovic on the eve of the match in Santa Clara, California. “We know it’s in our hands, and we know what a win does for us tomorrow.” Despite the favourable draw scenario, Popovic insisted the team would not play for a draw. “Look, we haven’t thought about the game in that way at all. We’re going into the game tomorrow to win. I expect they’ll be doing the same.”
The permutations are complex. A defeat for the Socceroos would still likely see them qualify as one of the best third-placed teams, provided the loss is not a heavy one. Scotland’s 3-0 defeat to Brazil on Thursday left them third in Group C with three points and a goal difference of -3. Australia would have to lose by four goals to drop below the Scots. After the first three groups were finalised, data agency Opta projected Australia to qualify in more than 93% of simulations.
Paraguay View Match as a Final
Paraguay coach Gustavo Alfaro described the match as a “final” for his team. “Of course we understand we are the team ranked lower by Fifa, but that doesn’t mean I feel inferior to them,” he said. Alfaro spoke at length about the challenge posed by Australia, highlighting their height and defensive organisation. “There will be little spaces in the match, it will be complex to find the space to move up where you have a high density of players in certain parts. You need patience and more patience.”
Injury Forces Change in Defence
Popovic confirmed the absence of right full-back Jacob Italiano, who picked up an adductor injury in training. He would not reveal his replacement. Assistant coach Paul Okon had earlier noted that left-wingback Jordy Bos was forced to exert more energy in the first half against the USA due to American raids down that flank. The enforced change on the right builds anticipation about whether Australia can claim supremacy in the wide areas. Popovic downplayed the importance of wingbacks in his system: “They play an important part, like so many relationships that we are trying to build on the field. I wouldn’t put them above any other position.”
Defenders at Risk of Suspension
Central defenders Harry Souttar and Alessandro Circati, like Bos, have one yellow card each, putting them at risk of suspension from the last-32 match if they receive another against Paraguay. “You need to play keeping yourself a bit aware of that, but you can’t let that affect your match,” Circati said. “Because I think – at least myself – I’d rather go past the round and get a yellow card than not pass at all.”
Forward Line Under Scrutiny
Popovic’s forward selections will face scrutiny after he shifted Nestory Irankunda and Connor Metcalfe – both scorers against Turkey – to the bench for the USA match. Striker Mo Toure, 22, has a history of soft tissue injuries, has not played 90 minutes since November, and appeared troubled by cramp in the first match against Turkey. Popovic defended his choices: “I’d only change the performance in the first half, that we could match them a bit better, but I’m sure from that experience we’ll be better against Paraguay and, God willing, we get through and we’ll be better again for the next experience. Nestory plays a big part in that of course.”
Personal Significance for Popovic
The match holds personal significance for Popovic, who scored against Paraguay in his final appearance for the national team in 2006. “When I saw that we’ve got Paraguay [in the World Cup draw] it was personally something a little special. Well, I also scored in my last game. I don’t score many, so I have to remind you of that,” he said, smiling. “Then to think that all these years later that I’d be the head coach and [we would be] up against Paraguay is quite special. That was a great day, hopefully tomorrow will be a wonderful, wonderful day for Australia against Paraguay once more.”
