In a recent Guardian article, it was suggested that football teams chasing the Premier League title are more open to risk taking, citing the Nobel prize-winning prospect theory by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. However, Professor Peter Ayton from the Centre for Decision Research at Leeds University Business School has written to set the record straight.
Correcting the Misinterpretation
Professor Ayton welcomes the inclusion of scientific theories in sports commentary but points out that the article misapplied prospect theory. The theory does not show that “human beings suffer from loss aversion when in a favourable position” or that those pursuing a favourable position are “much more open to risk taking.”
What Prospect Theory Actually Says
Prospect theory predicts that people are more motivated to avoid losses than to achieve gains of comparable magnitude. This explains several observed phenomena in sports:
- Teams facing a disappointing scoreline receive more yellow and red cards and use more substitutes.
- Basketball teams behind by a point at halftime win more often than teams ahead by a point.
- Golfers hole more par putts than birdie putts at the same distance.
However, it does not predict that a race leader would take less risk than their pursuers. In fact, the theory suggests the opposite: when contemplating gains, people are more risk-averse, while when contemplating losses, they are more risk-seeking. Therefore, a race leader preoccupied with losing should be more willing to take risks than any pursuers contemplating winning.
Call for More Science in Sports Commentary
Professor Ayton notes the curious absence of scientific expertise in sports broadcasting and welcomes attempts to rectify this. However, he emphasizes that on this occasion, the science predicts exactly the opposite of what was reported.
This letter serves as a reminder of the importance of accurate application of scientific theories in sports analysis.
