The dramatic and unlawful seizure of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro by US forces over the weekend has thrust the South American nation back into the global spotlight. While the vast petroleum reserves of Venezuela are the undeniable prize, analysts argue that oil alone is an insufficient explanation for the timing and scale of this theatrical intervention.
The Oil Curse and the Geopolitical Prize
Oil has been Venezuela's blessing and its curse for a century. Since the 1920s, the nation's economy has been built on oil rents, leading to currency overvaluation and a crippling dependence on imports. A political pact in the 1960s that divided oil spoils by vote share worsened structural weaknesses, leaving the country exposed when prices collapsed in the early 1990s. This economic shock paved the way for Hugo Chávez's failed 1992 coup and his subsequent election as president in 1998.
Today, Venezuelan crude is extra-heavy, expensive, and slow to extract. It will not immediately transform US energy security. Instead, oil acts as the central prize around which other US agendas coalesce. These include future profits for American firms, modest downward pressure on global oil prices, depriving China of a key ally in the Western Hemisphere, pressuring Cuba, and sending a potent domestic political signal to voters in the crucial state of Florida.
A History of Intervention and Systemic Collapse
History appears to be repeating itself. In 2002, the Bush administration covertly backed a business-led coup that briefly ousted Chávez. The interim government moved swiftly to dissolve democratic institutions and reverse state-led oil reforms, but mass protests restored Chávez to power. The episode proved formative, hardening the regime's ideology and cementing a state apparatus that viewed opposition as an existential threat, using oil wealth to build patronage networks and secure military loyalty.
The system built by Chávez could not survive the dual shock of his death in 2013 and the collapse of oil prices a year later. The result was economic catastrophe: vanishing US dollars, severe shortages of food and medicine, and hyperinflation as Maduro printed money to plug gaps. An estimated eight million people fled the country. The glaring disconnect between the regime's 'man of the people' rhetoric and the conspicuous wealth of its insiders finally destroyed its remaining legitimacy.
No Clear Endgame in a Hollowed-Out State
However, removing Nicolás Maduro does not dismantle the Chavista system. Any successor from outside the existing power structure would inherit a state they do not truly control, where real power resides with networks of fixers and generals. This explains why US forces reportedly left Maduro's deputy, Delcy Rodríguez, in charge—a recognition of the entrenched reality on the ground.
While US sanctions have undoubtedly worsened Venezuela's economic slump, lifting them alone will not restore growth. The nation's industrial base has been hollowed out, and its skilled labour force has emigrated. If US oil majors secure a larger share of future revenues, the Venezuelan state in Caracas could find itself even more cash-strapped than before.
The decision-making process behind the intervention bears an uncomfortable resemblance to the 2003 invasion of Iraq—not because Venezuela is Iraq, but because no single rationale was decisive. A combination of oil interests, anti-drug operations, ideological fixation, and presidential ego collectively pushed Donald Trump toward a high-risk move with no apparent endgame. The spectacle in Caracas is about more than crude; it is a complex tale of resource curse, failed states, and the enduring allure of geopolitical theatre.
