A generational shift is transforming the relationship between the United States and Israel, with tensions already palpable due to Israel's actions in Gaza and Benjamin Netanyahu's role in pushing Donald Trump into a counterproductive war against Iran serving as the last straw, according to Kenneth Roth, a Guardian US columnist and former executive director of Human Rights Watch.
Fraying Ties and Unconditional Support
Stopping unconditional US support for Israel would be important for curbing US complicity in Israeli war crimes, may be the best thing for Israel to avoid a dangerous dead end of relentless military escalation, and is a prerequisite for Palestinians to escape Israel's endless occupation, Roth argues. The relationship was not always as close as in recent decades; at Israel's founding in 1948, Washington was supportive but with reserve, and President Dwight Eisenhower forced Israel to withdraw from the Sinai in 1957.
Things changed after neighboring states attacked Israel in 1967 and 1973, and Israel benefited from portraying itself during the Cold War as a bulwark against Soviet influence. For many years, questioning Israel in discussions with most US officials became impossible, with extreme deference visible even as Israel committed genocide. President Joe Biden stopped delivering 2,000lb bombs used to indiscriminately decimate Palestinian neighborhoods but kept billions flowing in other military aid and arms sales, and organized an ineffective floating pier for food delivery while starvation worsened.
Shifting Public Opinion
Biden was behind the times, as Israeli atrocities in Gaza alienated a growing percentage of the Democratic party and even younger Christian evangelicals, who comprise Israel's base within the Republican party. A Pew poll in April showed that 60% of American adults have a negative view of Israel, up 7% since last year and 20% since 2022. Among Democrats and Democratically inclined independents, a striking 80% have an unfavorable opinion of Israel. Among Republicans, a majority still supports Israel, but 57% of those aged 18 to 49 have negative views.
Trump showed more backbone than Biden when it came to standing up to Netanyahu, seeing Netanyahu as the regional bully and coming around to recognize that the starvation and killing had to stop. Trump insisted on a ceasefire, and Netanyahu had to agree, although Trump seems to have lost interest since then. The disastrous war with Iran has accelerated Israel's plummeting esteem in the United States, with Netanyahu bamboozling the naive Trump into starting the war with unrealistic visions of regime change and no plan B.
Misaligned Interests
US and Israeli interests no longer align, Roth writes. Trump wants a ceasefire; Netanyahu wants endless war. Trump wants to focus on business deals in the Gulf; Netanyahu is fixated on Iran. In utter frustration, Trump called Netanyahu 'fucking crazy' for jeopardizing an accord with Iran by continuing attacks in Lebanon, while Vice-President JD Vance chastised Israeli officials for criticizing Trump's agreement with Iran when Washington is pretty much the only ally that Israel still has.
Within the Republican party, Trump is stuck between the competing demands of his isolationist 'America First' base and traditional Republican hawks. Meanwhile, Israel is becoming toxic for Democrats. In last week's primary election in New York City, home to the world's largest Jewish population outside of Israel, support for Israel has become the kiss of death. Mayor Zohran Mamdani called the pro-Israel lobby group Aipac 'monsters', and victorious candidates openly recognized Israel's genocide and apartheid.
Netanyahu's Reckoning
Netanyahu sees the writing on the wall, speaking of the need to wean Israel from US military aid over a decade, but Israel will be lucky if the aid survives the next Democratic administration, Roth predicts. Netanyahu may still lose the coming election, which must be held by late October, due to his unpopularity from the paltry showing of his endless wars, long-pending corruption charges, and ignoring clear warning signs of Hamas's deadly 7 October 2023 attack.
But switching leaders will not end Israel's pariah status if its policies remain unchanged. Repudiating Netanyahu's callous indifference to Palestinian civilian life would require a new government to take a bold step such as surrendering him to face pending war crime charges in The Hague, much as the Serbian government did in 2001 to former president Slobodan Milosevic. That would be good for Israel, even if the Israeli public disagrees and Netanyahu's main opponents seem more hawkish than he is.
Limits of Forever War
There are limits to Netanyahu's vision of forever war. Unconditional US support has enabled Israel to operate with impunity, but has left it with inveterate opponents: Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Islamic Republic in Iran. Tehran has a nuclear program that was contained by the deal struck by President Barack Obama but unleashed when Trump, egged on by Netanyahu, ripped it up. Roth questions how much longer it will be before Iran learns the North Korean lesson and builds or buys its own nuclear weapon.
Peace deals with Egypt and Jordan removed them as threats, the Abraham accords neutralized other Arab governments, and the Oslo accords generated the Palestinian Authority. Roth asks why Israel can trust the Palestinian population of Jordan but not those in the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza, suggesting the problem is Israel's endless occupation and refusal to recognize Palestinians' right to self-determination. South Africa's negotiated end to its apartheid regime has positive lessons for Israel.
Unconditional US support for Israel has allowed the combative approach of Netanyahu and his ilk to prevail, leaving them with the view that anything goes in the name of 'self-defense'. An end to that support would force a reckoning with reality, a recognition that the unrelenting subjugation of a people is a recipe for recurrent rebellion, while acceptance of their humanity is a prerequisite for peace, Roth concludes.
