US Democracy Stabilizes at Diminished Level After Trump's Return, Experts Find
A new survey released on Tuesday reveals that the health of American democracy has settled into a diminished state, stabilizing after a sharp decline last year but remaining well below levels recorded before the start of Donald Trump's second term. The findings, from the nonpartisan democracy-tracking project Bright Line Watch, suggest the erosion of norms detected after Trump's return to the White House has hardened into a new baseline.
Survey Methodology and Key Findings
The report draws on two waves of surveys conducted by Bright Line Watch, which polls hundreds of US scholars at American colleges and universities. The first survey was conducted in late December and early January, a volatile period marked by the Trump administration's immigration crackdown in Minnesota and US military actions in Venezuela. Given the gravity of these events, researchers fielded a second survey in February and early March to account for any shifts in perception.
In the initial findings, experts' views of US democracy rose to 60 on a scale of 100, up from a record-low of 53 in the early months of Trump's second term. Researchers suggest this uptick may be attributed to Democratic successes in off-year elections, indicating that free and fair elections were still possible. Following the toppling of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, experts' ratings slipped back to 56 and remained consistent at 57 in the second survey.
Historical Context and Future Projections
During Trump's first term and throughout Joe Biden's presidency, ratings of US democracy were relatively stable, never falling below 60 or exceeding 70. Since then, scholars' views have largely stabilized at lower levels with modest fluctuations tied to major events. While the trajectory offers assurance that democratic performance is no longer rapidly deteriorating, it underscores a sobering reality: experts see little evidence of a near-term recovery.
On average, scholars project that American democracy will remain at roughly its current level through 2027, with only gradual improvement expected over the next decade. These ratings were notably higher than forecasters had predicted for the end of 2025, when they expected US democratic performance to fall to 50.
Partisan Divisions and Public Perception
The public holds a dim view of American democracy, according to the most recent survey, but is sharply divided along partisan lines over how well the system is functioning. When asked to evaluate US performance on 35 democratic principles, scholars' assessments changed little, except for an improvement in their view of judicial checks on the executive branch.
This improvement likely reflects recent Supreme Court rulings curtailing Trump's power to impose tariffs and the end of National Guard deployments to major US cities. Notably, even as Trump and his allies have continued to cast doubt on election integrity, overall public confidence in the voting system remains roughly in line with levels before the 2020 election.
Alarming Actions and Democratic Threats
In a series of recent actions taken by the Trump administration, experts registered near-unanimous alarm. Ninety-six percent said Trump's demand that his attorney general take legal action against political opponents was a threat to democracy. Similarly, 95% of scholars cited his call to nationalize voting as a threat, and 93% said the same of his suggestion that Democratic lawmakers' comments about unlawful military orders were seditious behavior punishable by death.
Among the public, however, these same actions drew partisan responses, with substantial approval from Republicans, especially those who identify more closely with Trump's MAGA movement than with the Republican party itself.
Comparative Assessments and White House Response
The Bright Line Watch findings place the US in a similar position to other recent assessments, including those by Freedom House and the Varieties of Democracy Institute, both of which reported steep democratic backsliding under the Trump administration. The V-Dem institute noted in its annual report that the speed with which American democracy is currently being dismantled is unprecedented in modern history.
The White House and Trump himself have forcefully pushed back against any suggestion that the president governs like an autocrat. Trump told reporters in the Oval Office last year, responding to critics who decried his deployment of the National Guard in Washington, that he doesn't like dictators and isn't one himself, describing himself as a man with great common sense.
Academic Perspectives and Political Context
Some recent studies have found that political scientists tend to show a pessimism bias in their assessments of democratic health. Meanwhile, Democrats have argued that winning control of one or both chambers of Congress in the November midterms would serve as a check on what they say are the president's authoritarian ambitions.
The stabilization of democratic health at diminished levels represents a significant shift in the American political landscape, with experts warning that the new baseline may persist for years to come despite modest fluctuations tied to major political events.
