A Ukrainian work team sets up extra razor wire in front of an anti-tank ditch in the forest close to the Belarusian border. Ukraine is bolstering its northern defences amid fears that Belarus is being dragged into the war. Kyiv is not taking any risks as Moscow integrates Minsk ever more closely into its conflict.
Rise in Russian Drones from Belarus
Russian spy drones flying into Ukraine from Belarusian airspace have sharply increased since the beginning of the year. Senior officials in Kyiv express mounting concern over Belarus's involvement. Ukraine has reinforced fortifications on its northern border, including anti-tank ditches, concrete "dragons' teeth" obstacles, and new areas of barbed wire. Troops along the border report a jump of about 20% in Russian intelligence drones since January.
New Drone Bases and Allegations
The increase in drone sightings parallels reports that Russia has constructed five new drone bases near its shared border with Belarus. Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, have noted "unusual activity" on the Belarus border. Russia and Belarus accused Ukraine of a deadly drone strike on a bus carrying Belarusian schoolchildren in Bryansk, an allegation Ukraine's military called "false."
Belarus has been expanding infrastructure that could support Russian operations, including logistics routes, training grounds, and surveillance infrastructure. However, there is no evidence of large formations gathering for a repeat of the 2022 invasion. Instead, Moscow is integrating Minsk into its war efforts, including joint nuclear exercises.
Expert Concerns
Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba noted that Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko's actions are different from 2022. "I'm not saying an offensive will begin tomorrow, but I can see something different," Kuleba said. Political scientist Maksym Pleshko observed increased pro-Russian messaging in Belarus as Russia faces a strategic stalemate. Others, like Yevhen Mahda, are skeptical that Lukashenko would risk using Belarusian troops.
Ukraine's unmanned forces commander Robert Brovdi warned that Kyiv has identified approximately 500 targets in Belarus to hit if Minsk's involvement becomes more direct. "Politically, it would be the end of him," Brovdi said.
Northern Border Fortifications
On Ukraine's northern border with Belarus, Kyiv takes no risks. North of Chernihiv, a work crew fixes razor wire while an excavator digs anti-tank barriers. A major in Ukraine's border force, call sign Nissan, said, "We have to be ready for any scenario. Every day we are building our fortifications." He believes it would be almost impossible for tanks and vehicles to move through the area.
Residents in the village of Novi Yarylovychi see Russian drones daily. Natalia Lanna and Svitlana Sotvykova have become experts in identifying them. "We can tell the difference between armed drones and intelligence ones," Svitlana said.
Gradual Normalization Risk
Analysts warn of a gradual normalization of Belarus's role in Russia's war. Journalist Hanna Liubakova wrote for the Atlantic Council that "the risk is not of sudden escalation, but rather of gradual normalisation. As Belarus becomes more embedded in Russia's war effort, incidents are likely to become more frequent and harder to interpret."
