Leaders of Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland gathered in Cardiff for an unprecedented summit, intensifying discussions about the potential break-up of the United Kingdom. Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth, who hosted the meeting, said he has 'never been interested in the break-up of the UK,' framing the goal instead as 'having the tools to build a future for our people through the right of self-determination.'
The summit brought together Scottish First Minister John Swinney, Northern Ireland First Minister Michelle O'Neill, Sinn Fein president Mary Lou McDonald, and ap Iorwerth, who serves as Wales's First Minister. If all their political ambitions were realized, only England would remain in the UK, potentially rendering the name 'United Kingdom' redundant.
What Would Change Beyond the Name and Flag?
Metro consulted Alistair Jones, a former associate professor at De Montfort University, to explore some of the less obvious consequences of a potential split. Jones highlighted that Northern Ireland's post-Brexit position, which keeps it in the EU single market, would be significantly altered by reunification.
'If Northern Ireland is reunified, then we have that huge border, and access to the European single market becomes a little bit more difficult again,' Jones said. 'Those businesses that were based in both Great Britain and Northern Ireland being able to access a single market, they would lose that automatically.' He also noted that Britain's military presence would be removed, with soldiers potentially relocated to barracks in Great Britain or discharged as surplus to requirements.
Scotland's Path to Independence
Polls suggest Scotland is more likely to take the constitutional leap than Northern Ireland or Wales. Pro-independence parties have held a strong majority in the Scottish Parliament since 2011, and recent poll aggregators show the 'yes' vote consistently leading. Jones pointed to the 'huge oil reserves' in the North Sea as a key factor, making it crucial to determine 'where the border is drawn in international waters.'
Currency remains a sticking point from the 2014 referendum. Scotland could continue using the pound short-term but might need to adopt the euro to rejoin the EU. However, Jones argued that Scotland already operates with significant autonomy: 'If you look at the United States of America, or Germany, or Australia, they've actually got more powers than those federal states have got. So, in some respects, Scotland is already in a weird position in that, in a number of areas, they're acting akin to an independent state.'
Wales and England's Uncertain Future
Wales appears further from independence, with polling showing strong majority opposition. Plaid Cymru, despite being the largest party, does not command a Senedd majority. At this year's elections, they sought greater devolution rather than a referendum. Jones noted, 'The Welsh economy is hugely intertwined with that of England, so any separation is going to be very, very difficult indeed. Simply because so many of the UK businesses that are in both England and Wales are based in England and use Wales as a source of resources.'
England, lacking a devolved parliament, risks becoming independent by default. Jones suggested that 'people in England would not notice much difference,' except for potential passport requirements for travel to Scotland or Wales and higher whisky prices due to duties, particularly if Scotland joins the EU while England remains outside.
Is the UK Actually Going to Break Apart?
An Ipsos poll found that less than a quarter (24%) of British adults believe the UK will still exist in its current form in 20 years. The figure rises to 34% for a ten-year timescale and 55% for five years. Prime Minister Andy Burnham, however, has declared a Scottish independence referendum 'off limits,' citing 'no consensus' and 'no clear basis to suggest' that most Northern Irish people want to leave. Despite this, Swinney predicted that Burnham will prove to be 'the last prime minister of the United Kingdom.'
