When it comes to the polls, Donald Trump has something of a California problem. He has a New York problem too. The thing is, he’s always had those. His newest, though? The president now has a Kentucky problem. And that’s not all.
The states that the US president has traditionally polled well in – places like Kentucky, Arkansas, Florida and Ohio – those are places that helped fuel Trump’s return to the White House. Yet new polling suggests that support for Trump has weakened in all of these states since the start of his second term. That’s right. Every single one.
Fresh figures from polling firm Civiqs show Trump’s approval rating is lower in every state than it was when he returned to office back in January 2025. Kentucky is a case in point. Trump began his second term with a net approval rating of +23 points in The Bluegrass State, but that advantage has now effectively disappeared, leaving the state sitting around break even.
The same pattern can be found elsewhere across Republican America. Wyoming remains Trump’s strongest state and places like North Dakota, South Dakota and West Virginia still give him positive ratings, but the margins are far smaller than they were a year and a half ago.
That doesn’t mean that all red states have suddenly turned completely against Trump. It does, however, suggest that some of the enthusiasm that greeted his return to power has cooled, even in parts of the country that remain broadly supportive.
The shifts become even more interesting when attention turns to the states that tend to decide elections. A drop in Wyoming may grab fewer headlines, but movement in Florida, Pennsylvania or Ohio has far bigger political consequences.
Florida has gone from a positive net approval rating of +9 to -13. Ohio has slipped from +8 to -14, while Pennsylvania has moved from -3 to -17. Nevada has fallen from level territory to -20, while North Carolina has dropped from 0 to -15. Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan and Georgia all currently show Trump with negative approval ratings too.
Taken individually, none of those figures spell political disaster for Donald Trump. Together, though, they point in the same direction, with the POTUS now underwater across much of the battleground map.
National polling suggests the same thing. Most recent surveys place Trump’s approval rating in the high 30s, while disapproval sits close to 60%, leaving him firmly in negative territory overall.
Some of his toughest numbers come from younger voters. Among adults aged 18 to 34, just 23% approve of his performance while 71% disapprove, with voters aged 35 to 49 also remaining strongly negative.
Independent voters appear equally difficult to win over. Current polling shows 31% approving of Trump’s performance compared with 61% who disapprove, helping to explain why several swing states have moved in the same direction.
There are also signs that cracks may be appearing among voters who once formed part of Trump’s strongest coalition. A Reuters/Ipsos poll found approval among rural Americans has fallen from 60% in early 2025 to 50%. That’s still a relatively strong number compared with many other groups. Even so, a ten-point drop is the sort of thing that political strategists notice very quickly.
The economy may be part of the explanation. Just 31% of rural respondents approved of Trump’s handling of the economy and cost of living, while 61% disapproved, suggesting that rising prices remain a stubborn political problem.
Other recent polling indicates Democrats currently hold a narrow lead in the battle for Congress. An NBC News survey found 49% of voters backing Democratic control compared with 44% supporting Republicans.
None of this means America’s political map has been turned upside down. Trump’s strongest states are still largely the same states that have backed him for years, while places like Hawaii, Vermont, California and New York remain deeply hostile territory. As one might expect.
What’s changed is the amount of breathing space that he has. States that once looked comfortably pro-Trump are now much closer to the line, while several battlegrounds have drifted further into negative territory. In state after state, the margins are getting smaller, leaving less room for error as attention slowly starts to shift towards the next major electoral battles.
While Trump’s not the sort of man to let what other people think of him concern him too much – these latest figures will hardly come as welcome news to him and his administration.
