Makerfield prepares to go to the polls in Thursday’s byelection, with tactical voting by Green and Liberal Democrat supporters potentially playing a crucial role in securing a Labour victory. Left-leaning voters are more willing to back Andy Burnham than Restore supporters are to vote for Reform UK, according to recent polling.
Labour's Narrow Lead
Polling experts suggest that Labour’s lead is narrow, with Reform UK’s main competitor on the right being Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain party. While left-leaning voters are lending their support to Burnham, Restore Britain voters appear less willing to back Robert Kenyon, Reform’s candidate. The Guardian found that Green voters in the constituency are also prepared to back Burnham, with Opinium polling indicating that over half of those who would vote Green or Lib Dem in a general election plan to vote for Burnham in the byelection.
Vote Share Dynamics
At the last general election in July 2024, the Lib Dems won 7% and the Greens 4.5% of the vote, a combined share significantly larger than Burnham’s poll lead. In May’s council election in Wigan, the Greens secured 10.5% and the Lib Dems 3.5%. However, voting intentions for the byelection show less than 1% for the Greens and less than 2% for the Lib Dems. In contrast, Opinium polling places Restore on 6.5%, despite not having stood in the previous elections.
Expert Analysis
Rob Ford, a professor of political science at the University of Manchester, noted that the tactical logic in Makerfield is stark, as other parties are far from contention. “You’re not going to get a Green MP in Makerfield, you’re not going to get a Lib Dem MP in Makerfield,” he said. Burnham is popular in Manchester, giving him an advantage, but the race is not yet decided. Ford added that Restore’s campaign focuses on splitting Reform voters and mobilizing far-right discontent, which runs counter to tactical voting logic.
Voter Behavior
Ford cautioned that voting blocks are not like Lego blocks, and Restore voters might abstain if no Restore option is available, explaining why the tactical squeeze is less effective on the right. The Opinium research, conducted for Forward Democracy, which runs the tactical voting website StopReformUK.vote, supports these findings. Tom de Grunwald, founder of Forward Democracy, stated, “These figures confirm what we’ve long argued. Tactical voting works, and it’s happening in Makerfield.”
Misinformation Concerns
Separate research from the Social Market Foundation found a fourfold increase in local Facebook posts classified as misinformation during the campaign. The SMF analyzed over 1,800 posts across four local Facebook groups, identifying fake accounts and AI-generated images designed to influence voters.
Burnham's Popularity
While Burnham remains popular in Greater Manchester, Ipsos polling indicates his national favourability has dropped during the campaign, with 26% viewing him favourably and 33% unfavourably, a 7% decline since May. Nonetheless, he remains the most popular current Labour politician among the public and Labour supporters. James Crouch, head of policy and public affairs research at Opinium, said, “Andy Burnham enters the final week of the Makerfield byelection campaign ahead, but narrowly so.”
National Implications
Political commentator Peter Kellner emphasized that the byelection is not just about Makerfield but will be important nationally at the next general election. He noted that future elections may involve two separate contests on the left and right, with Makerfield serving as a dummy run for which side is more successful at consolidating its vote.
