Russian soldiers are being killed within minutes of arriving on the frontline, with recruits expected to last barely half an hour, according to a leading historian. Peter Frankopan, professor of global history at Oxford University, said that eight Russians are being either killed or seriously injured for every Ukrainian. More than 30,000 Russian soldiers have lost their lives this year alone.
High casualty rates and recruitment incentives
To offset mounting losses, President Vladimir Putin is offering recruits bonuses of up to £60,000 and debt relief of up to £105,000. State media reports that 420,000 people have signed one-year contracts. However, Russian military bloggers estimate that an average fighter lasts only between 10 days and three weeks from arriving at a training ground.
Role of drones and technology
Frankopan attributes the accelerating casualty rate to new military technology and tactics, particularly the widespread use of drones. Ukrainian forces are deploying drones against both military targets and key oil infrastructure, exacerbating fuel shortages in Russia. Putin acknowledged supply issues at petrol pumps and is considering a ban on diesel exports.
Shifting mood in Russia
As the war's impact deepens, business leaders have expressed 'profound disappointment' in Putin's leadership. One told The Guardian that there is a sense a 'growing catastrophe is looming' due to 'utterly senseless, self-destructive decisions.' The source added: 'People who once defended Putin no longer do. Any sense of a future has disappeared.'
Historical parallels and Putin's future
Frankopan draws parallels between Putin and Tsar Nicholas II, who was ousted in 1917. He notes Putin's missteps, including 'micromanaging the war, disappearing for long spells, and then making bizarre public appearances.' The professor warns that Putin will likely cling to power by any means, as stepping down could lead to imprisonment or death.
