Ever since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine four years ago, Vladimir Putin has had an unspoken deal with his people. The war might rage on but the lives of everyday Russians – especially in the big cities – were to carry on as normal.
But now, as Russian affairs reporter Pjotr Sauer explains, that pact is being tested to the limit. The economy is stagnating, up to half a million men have been killed in Ukraine and, in a further bid for control, access to the internet has been squeezed. Muscovites are having to use paper maps to get around and walkie-talkies to communicate.
Amid all of it, he tells Helen Pidd, there are growing reports of the president’s increasing isolation and paranoia. Barely seen in public, a nickname for Putin has become more and more popular: “grandpa in a bunker”.
Could Putin – more or less in charge of Russia for the last 26 years – be losing his grip?
Growing Concerns Over Putin's State of Mind
According to Sauer, the Russian leader's behavior has become increasingly erratic. He rarely appears in public, and when he does, his speeches are often rambling and disconnected from reality. This has led to speculation among analysts and even some Kremlin insiders that Putin may be losing touch with the situation on the ground.
The Impact on Ordinary Russians
The war has taken a heavy toll on Russian society. With hundreds of thousands of casualties, many families have been directly affected. The economy, meanwhile, is struggling under the weight of sanctions and war-related expenditures. Inflation is high, and shortages of goods are becoming more common.
In response, the Russian government has tightened control over information. Internet access has been restricted, and independent media have been shut down. This has made it difficult for Russians to get accurate information about the war and the state of the economy.
Putin's Increasing Paranoia
Sauer reports that Putin's inner circle has shrunk, and he is increasingly distrustful of those around him. The nickname “grandpa in a bunker” reflects a perception that he is isolated from reality, relying on a small group of loyalists for information.
This paranoia has led to a crackdown on dissent, with even mild criticism of the war becoming a criminal offense. The government has also ramped up propaganda efforts to maintain public support for the conflict.
Is Putin Losing His Grip?
Despite these challenges, Sauer notes that Putin remains firmly in control of the Russian state. There is no obvious successor, and the security apparatus remains loyal. However, the growing restiveness among ordinary Russians could eventually pose a threat to his rule.
As the war drags on and the economy continues to deteriorate, the unspoken deal between Putin and his people may become increasingly untenable. Whether Putin can adapt to these pressures or will double down on repression remains to be seen.
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