Nine Lessons for the US from Viktor Orbán's Defeat
As US elections approach, the Hungarian prime minister's loss serves as a powerful reminder that history does not march relentlessly toward autocracy. Viktor Orbán's electoral defeat delivered a significant blow to Donald Trump and JD Vance, who had enthusiastically endorsed Europe's most visible autocrat but proved unable to salvage his candidacy. However, Hungarian voters' rejection of Orbán on 12 April also holds vital lessons for Americans hoping to resist Trump's own autocratic tendencies.
Prioritize Opposition Unity
Orbán was defeated by a broad coalition led by Péter Magyar under the banner of his new Tisza party. The opposition's unity proved absolutely critical. While some Democrats remain wedded to purity tests, refusing to make common cause with those who reject one or more progressive tenets, Hungarians from across the political spectrum joined hands in the shared goal of defeating Orbán. For them, the debate between right and left paled in importance compared to the urgent need to redeem Hungary's democracy. Several political parties even refrained from fielding candidates, sacrificing their immediate interests to avoid dividing the anti-Orbán vote.
Fight from the Center
Hardly a progressive, Magyar comes from the center right, with conservative views on immigration and LGBTQ+ rights. For two decades, he was a member of Orbán's Fidesz party before leaving to start Tisza. Some American progressives believe the best way to beat Trumpism is to turn left, hoping that a mobilized base will stem the tide on the right. However, Magyar fought a distinctly centrist campaign, strategically targeting the movable middle. This effort yielded a remarkable 79% turnout on election day, the highest since the collapse of communism in 1989, successfully reaching across the entire political spectrum.
Economics Matter More Than Wedge Issues
Like many autocrats, Orbán consistently used social wedge issues in lieu of a coherent economic program. He railed against immigrants, LGBTQ+ people, the European Union, Ukraine, and even philanthropist George Soros. Yet Magyar kept returning to fundamental economic themes – Fidesz's endemic corruption, Hungary's anemic economy, and the decrepit state of infrastructure and public services. Those bread-and-butter issues resonated far more deeply with voters than Orbán's diversionary appeals to social enemies. Democrats should take note and emphasize similar economic realities.
Divisiveness Can Ultimately Backfire
Orbán maintained his rule for sixteen years by systematically dividing society. He painted his opponents as tools of Brussels or Kyiv, as partisans of immigrants over native Hungarians. Yet a society divided between "us" and "them" becomes primed to consolidate behind an anti-incumbent message. When the choice appears binary, and the ruling party is increasingly seen as corrupt and self-serving, embracing the alternative becomes more attractive. Orbán also became a victim of his own success, much like Trump, having dominated government for so long that he had no one left to blame for its failures, rendering his scapegoating ineffective.
Election Rigging Has Its Limits
Orbán was notorious for manipulating the Hungarian electoral system through gerrymandering and other tricks to yield a supermajority in parliament despite thin majorities at the ballot box. For instance, voters in some rural constituencies, where Orbán was most popular, were given three times the parliamentary weight of urban voters. This supermajority allowed him to change the constitution and appoint loyalists without seeking opposition votes. However, that electoral engineering proved dangerous as the political tide turned. Rather than give up on rural constituencies, Magyar campaigned extensively in the countryside. Tisza's 53% showing yielded its own supermajority – 141 of 199 seats – enabling them to dismantle Orbán's autocratic rule.
The Autocrat's Playbook Doesn't Guarantee Success
A key element of the autocrat's playbook involves tilting the electoral playing field by limiting or co-opting independent voices – journalists, civil society, and universities – to create a media environment where their message dominates. Yet Magyar demonstrated it is possible to overcome that advantage through an energetic schedule of in-person campaign events and effective use of social media. He was aided by years of work by remaining independent journalists and civil-society groups that exposed the Orbán government's self-dealing. Similar investigative work must continue in the United States.
Sycophants Give Bad Advice
One consequence of Orbán's stifling of dissent was that he lived in a classic autocratic echo chamber, hearing only what he allowed to be said. Leaders who trust their gut as a source of brilliance make monumental mistakes. Among Orbán's was his blatant corruption – the lavish estates of his family members while ordinary Hungarians scraped by, his use of government funds to pay off cronies rather than provide essential services. Despite promoting family values, his associates pardoned a children's home official convicted of covering up child sexual abuse. His close cooperation with Russia backfired. Magyar highlighted all these failures effectively.
External Support for Democracy Matters
The European Union assisted the revival of democracy in Hungary, as it did in Poland in 2023. Due to concerns about Hungary's "illiberal" democracy and disregard for the rule of law, the EU withheld various financial allocations totaling approximately €32 billion, or about 15% of Hungary's GDP, deepening economic strains. EU conditionality had a similar effect in Poland, contributing to the 2023 electoral victory of Donald Tusk's centrist Civic Coalition. While no foreign governmental body holds similar economic sway in the United States, external support for journalists and activists can still bolster efforts to restore democracy.
Autocracy Is Reversible
Perhaps the most important lesson is that history does not march relentlessly toward autocracy. Even Orbán had to face reality and concede defeat, mounting no January 6-style effort to cling to power. There is a tendency these days to despair about democracy, to feel its day has passed. But from Bangladesh to Brazil, people forced to live under autocracy have repeatedly shown they want out. Now that message has been sent from the heart of Europe. We must never forget that the autocrat's project is fundamentally one of self-promotion, designed to line the pockets of their families and cronies rather than serve the public interest.
Trump and Vance are not the only ones who saw themselves in Orbán. Many Americans also recognize disturbing similarities. That recognition should send chills down the spines of Republicans as they approach the midterms, reminding everyone that democratic resilience requires vigilance, unity, and a commitment to fundamental principles over partisan purity.
