New Zealand PM Luxon Faces Declining Approval as Economic Recovery Stalls
New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's personal ratings have taken a significant hit, according to recent polling data, as his government's economic management fails to resonate with voters ahead of the crucial November election. The RNZ-Reid Research poll, released on Monday, reveals a troubling trend for the National leader, with his preferred prime minister rating dropping two points to 17.3% - his lowest result in major polls since assuming leadership in 2023.
Polling Data Reveals Growing Political Challenges
The comprehensive survey shows Luxon's net favourability rating has deteriorated from -14 in January to -20.6, marking his weakest performance in the Reid Research series since becoming National's leader in 2021. Meanwhile, Labour's Chris Hipkins maintains a lead with 20.7% support, despite a minor 0.4 point decrease. More concerning for the governing coalition, half of respondents now believe New Zealand is heading in the wrong direction - a four-point increase since January - compared to just 32.3% who feel the country is on the right track.
Political analyst Ben Thomas noted, "This is the first long-term cost-of-living crisis we've experienced in decades, one that affects the entire electorate more evenly and consequently has broader negative impacts on voter sentiment."
Coalition Support Erodes as Election Approaches
The polling data, collected during mid-March amid escalating Middle East tensions and global energy concerns, shows National's support declining one point to 30.8%. Their coalition partners Act maintain 7% support while New Zealand First stands at 10.6%. On the opposition side, Labour has gained 0.6 points to reach 35.6%, with the Greens at 10.1% and Te Pāti Māori at 3.2%.
If an election were held today, these numbers would likely result in a hung parliament, with neither the left nor right blocs securing a clear majority. A separate Taxpayers' Union Curia poll in March showed National support at just 28.4%, raising serious questions about Luxon's leadership and forcing the prime minister to address speculation about his political future.
Economic Performance Under Scrutiny
The coalition government came to power promising to revitalize New Zealand's economy, which had been battered by recession and stagnation following the COVID-19 pandemic. Their recovery strategy included relaxing immigration settings to attract foreign investment and implementing public spending reductions. However, economic recovery has been disappointingly slow, with the economy growing just 0.2% in the December quarter - weaker than expected - and ongoing Middle East conflicts threatening to derail further progress.
Thomas observed that Luxon lacks the "charisma" of previous prime ministers like John Key and Jacinda Ardern, noting, "He doesn't have that personal buffer, so his political fortunes are much more directly exposed to what people experience daily in their financial situations."
Historical Context and Election Implications
Polls throughout 2025 have consistently shown unfavorable results for Luxon and his coalition, an unusual pattern for a first-term New Zealand government. Should November's general election reflect current polling trends, it would mark the first time since 1993 - when New Zealand adopted its mixed-member proportional parliamentary system - that a first-term government has failed to secure a second term.
When questioned about the polling results, Luxon told RNZ, "People don't discuss polls. Currently, I'm completely focused on addressing fuel supply challenges and minimizing impacts on New Zealanders." Despite this public stance, the declining numbers present a significant challenge for the prime minister as he navigates both domestic economic pressures and international uncertainties in the lead-up to the November election.
