Eastern European Nato members are increasingly concerned that the United States may not come to their defense if Russia attacks, as the Trump administration's rhetoric and policy shifts create unprecedented uncertainty. The issue will dominate discussions at the upcoming Nato summit in Ankara in July.
Doubts over US commitment
In mid-May, at a gathering in Tallinn, US Undersecretary of State Thomas DiNanno was asked directly whether American troops would fight if Russia invaded the Baltic states. He shifted uncomfortably and gave a meandering answer that did not include the word "yes," according to attendees. Politicians from the region usually sidestep the issue publicly, insisting Washington's commitment remains strong. "We shouldn't pour fuel on the fire," one minister said.
Dovilė Šakalienė, former Lithuanian defence minister, compared the relationship to "a dysfunctional family where divorce is not an option." In private, officials are whispering about what a Russian attack would look like without US help, whether Europe should keep Trump on side or prepare for Washington's absence, and whether Vladimir Putin will test the alliance's resolve.
Hegseth's blunt message
In February 2025, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told Nato allies that European security would no longer be a US priority due to China's rise, and Europe must pay for its own defense. "Values are important, but you can't shoot values, you can't shoot flags, and you can't shoot strong speeches. There is no replacement for hard power," Hegseth said. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius asked for a timetable for the US drawdown, but many Europeans were upset, fearing it would speed up the withdrawal.
Some eastern Europeans saw a positive side: "Europe had avoided, lagged behind and procrastinated for decades, so that cold shower was justified and necessary," said Šakalienė, who was Lithuania's defence minister at the time.
Ukraine humiliation and intelligence halt
Two weeks later, Trump humiliated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a televised White House showdown and then halted intelligence-sharing with Ukraine. The cutoff was reversed after a week, but it left a lasting impression on Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and his inner circle. "It felt like the ground shifting beneath their feet," said a well-connected source in Warsaw.
A senior European official raised concerns with then-US National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, noting that senior military officers felt betrayed after serving with US forces in Afghanistan. Waltz said Ukraine was different and such a decision would never apply to a Nato ally. The official pushed back: "In these kinds of discussions, what people believe is almost more important than what the reality would be."
Coalition of the willing
After the Oval Office debacle, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer gathered leaders of the "coalition of the willing" in London. Inside the room, there was a feeling that something had broken. "I could see it on the faces of all these leaders – no matter if they were from the left or right, it was clear they understood that the world had changed," said one person present. The format continued with regular video calls, focusing on keeping Trump engaged in European security. Finland's President Alexander Stubb, who built a rapport with Trump on the golf course, acted as "a kind of ambassador for all the smaller countries," said a source.
Nato summit in The Hague
At the June Nato summit in The Hague, member states committed to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, a level already approached by Poland and the Baltic states. Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte made clear this was Trump's personal achievement, delighting the US president. Rutte's fawning, including calling Trump "daddy" on the sidelines, was seen as distasteful but tolerable. "It's cringe, but most European leaders are fine with it as long as he delivers Trump," said one Nato official.
Former Estonian President Kersti Kaljulaid said: "Barack Obama and Joe Biden asked politely for Europeans to spend more and it got us nowhere. It is only by being impolite and insistent that you can get Europe to change."
Russian drones enter Polish airspace
In September, about 20 Russian drones entered Polish airspace in one night, testing Nato's red lines. US commander in Europe Alexus Grynkewich coordinated with Polish military headquarters in real time, opening corridors for Dutch F-35 pilots to join Polish F-16s and shoot down many drones. "All sides try to compensate for the political situation with the quality of ties at a technical level," said Polish analyst Sławomir Dębski.
Trump posted "Here we go!" on social media and later suggested it "could have been a mistake." Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski publicly rebuked Trump: "You can believe that one or two veer off target, but 19 mistakes in one night, over seven hours, sorry, I don't believe it."
Greenland threats and Iran war
In January, Trump doubled down on threats to annex Greenland from Denmark, a Nato member. Some capitals asked whether Denmark could invoke Article 5. One Nato diplomat described the feeling as like looking into an abyss. The scare passed with deft diplomacy from Rutte, but was followed by Trump's war on Iran, causing delays in US weapons deliveries to Europe. In mid-May, Poland learned that a rotation of 4,000 US troops scheduled for deployment had been cancelled. Trump soon reversed the cancellation via Truth Social, citing his friendly ties with Poland's nationalist president Karol Nawrocki.
Hegseth's second combative address
Just ahead of the Ankara summit, Hegseth delivered another combative address, blasting as "shameful" European decisions not to grant basing and overflight rights for Washington's Iran war, and attacking Europe for focusing on "gender equity and climate change" instead of "tanks and fighters and air defences." He announced a six-month review of US force posture in Europe and said the US would lower financial contributions if others did not meet targets.
Divided responses
Rutte has told leaders there is nothing to be gained from airing anger publicly. Czech President Petr Pavel agreed: "It is not in our interest to be over-critical to the United States, given the personality of the American president." However, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's acrimonious spat with Trump last week shows patience wearing thin even among ideological allies.
Poland has become increasingly vocal. "We have been and will remain a loyal ally of America, but we cannot be suckers," Sikorski told parliament. In the Baltic states, caution dominates. Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said: "Of course the tension is concerning, but it needs to be dealt with in very calm ways." Dr Kristi Raik of the ICDS thinktank said this consensus might need overhauling: "We cannot prepare ourselves for this possible future scenario if people are too scared to talk about it." She added: "I don't remember this level of self-censorship in public foreign policy discourse since the late Soviet period."
Europe's efforts and gaps
Several European countries have sent troops to the Baltics under Nato, most symbolically Germany, which is deploying a full brigade to Lithuania. Former Nato chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen proposed a European defence coalition including Ukraine. French President Emmanuel Macron offered to extend France's nuclear umbrella over more countries, including Poland. However, replacing US hard power is difficult. A senior European intelligence official said combined collection capabilities on Russia of all Nato agencies minus the US still amount to "less than the US produces on its own."
Rutte bluntly told the European Parliament: "If anyone thinks that the European Union, or Europe as a whole, can defend itself without the US, keep on dreaming. You can't." Sikorski conceded some US drawdown is inevitable, expecting a "Nato Mark 3" where Europe shoulders more burden and the US is "a cavalry-over-the-hill kind of ally." Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braže agreed: "Europeans have social welfare states with big budgets. Over the medium to long term, we should be able to handle a threat like Russia conventionally, with the US providing extended nuclear deterrence."
Uncertainty and hybrid threats
Two problems remain: western European governments balk at prioritizing defence over other spending, and there is doubt the US will commit to an orderly shift rather than an abrupt break. One official said: "Trump at least has some fascination for Europe and a lingering desire for European approval; with Vance there is nothing but disdain for us."
Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys said: "I'm more concerned about the projection of unity that we're showing to Russia, that they could find themselves making the crazy assessment that maybe it's the right time." As long as Russia is tied up in Ukraine, a traditional invasion is unlikely, but hybrid attacks involving sabotage, drones or grey-zone warfare are expected. Former CIA analyst Peter Schroeder said: "The feeling in Russia is that as long as Trump is deepening tensions in the alliance, we don't need to get in the way of that; we can let these cracks get wider."
Jana Puglierin of the European Council on Foreign Relations calls the situation "Schrödinger's Nato" – ambiguity over whether the US is in or out until a hypothetical moment of truth. "Nobody knows the real status of the relationship until we 'open the box' – until Nato is tested militarily. But by then, it might be too late for the Europeans."
