Mojtaba Khamenei: The Controversial Successor to Iran's Supreme Leadership
When Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in early US-Israel missile strikes during the war on Iran, the 86-year-old leader's death at a time of poor health likely prompted existing succession plans among top officials. However, the chaotic regional explosion may have forced a reconsideration of those arrangements.
The New York Times has reported that Mojtaba Khamenei, the second-eldest son of the deceased ayatollah, has emerged as the leading candidate to assume the role of Supreme Leader. This development comes despite his father reportedly ruling out hereditary succession years earlier, warning against returning to a system reminiscent of the Shahs.
Controversial Selection Process
Dr Christian Emery, an associate professor in international politics at University College London, told Metro that this choice would not be without significant controversy. "He is reportedly extremely influential inside Iran but working against him is both his lack of government experience and the political and clerical establishment's fear that returning to hereditary rule would undermine the Iranian Revolution's founding principle of no more Shahs," Professor Emery explained.
The younger Khamenei's close links with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps suggest the IRGC's growing influence in mid-conflict Iran. Professor Emery noted this relationship was forged during Khamenei's service in the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s, which forms a "core part of the Islamic Republic's identity."
Implications of Mojtaba's Potential Leadership
Should Mojtaba Khamenei become Supreme Leader, it would ensure the "enormous economic and political powerbase" accumulated by the IRGC during his father's tenure continues unchallenged. This prospect offers little comfort to victims of this year's brutal protest crackdown, as Mojtaba is believed to have been a key architect of the regime's response.
The decision would also make him a prime assassination target. Israel's Defence Minister Israel Katz declared on social media that the new Supreme Leader would be "an unequivocal target for elimination. It does not matter what his name is or the place where he hides." This threat hits particularly close to home for Mojtaba, who lost his wife, mother, and a son alongside his father in Saturday's strikes.
How Iran's Supreme Leader is Chosen
In the 47 years since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, Iran has had only two Supreme Leaders:
- Ruhollah Khomeini (1979-1989)
- Ali Khamenei (1989-2026)
The Iranian Constitution mandates that the Assembly of Experts, an 88-cleric body elected every eight years, must elect a successor "as soon as possible" following the Supreme Leader's death. A smaller committee within the Assembly typically prepares a candidate list well in advance.
"It's almost certain that this was done long before the current war," Professor Emery noted, adding that Khamenei's own elevation was so carefully choreographed that the Assembly needed only 24 hours to elect him. However, the current conflict complicates matters, as convening the Assembly would provide Israel and the US with a golden opportunity to eliminate more Iranian leadership.
Alternative Candidates for Supreme Leader
Professor Emery identified several other potential candidates:
- Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i: The Supreme Court Chief Justice and current interim council member is an extreme hardliner notorious for mass executions and brutal crackdowns during January's protests. His appointment could incite more public rage.
- Hassan Khomeini: Grandson of the revolution's founder, he represents perhaps the most stabilizing option with his family name, connections to both reformist and conservative factions, and respect from the Revolutionary Guards. He is seen as relatively moderate within the system.
- Ayatollah Alireza Arafi: A member of both the Guardian Council and Assembly of Experts since 2019 and 2022 respectively, he possesses the necessary clerical standing and would likely continue Khamenei's agenda without challenging IRGC power.
The succession process unfolds against a backdrop of regional conflict, internal power struggles, and constitutional procedures that must now adapt to wartime conditions. Mojtaba Khamenei's emergence as frontrunner signals potential shifts in Iran's power dynamics, particularly regarding hereditary succession and military influence in the nation's highest leadership position.
