In Macomb County, Michigan, a blue-collar Detroit suburb that twice voted for Barack Obama before backing Donald Trump in his three presidential runs, residents are exhausted. Township trustee Shannon King, a Democrat still undecided, hears similar complaints repeatedly: “You’re going backwards in your paycheck. You’re going backwards in your healthcare. You go to work every day. You might have a side hustle. Your significant other has a side hustle, too. And you’re still struggling to do childcare.”
Daily Realities Drive Voter Sentiment
These realities shape the Democratic primary for the US Senate seat, one of the most closely watched races in the upcoming midterm elections. Incumbent Gary Peters is not seeking re-election, leaving the seat open. Across key battlegrounds like Lansing, Macomb County, Dearborn, and Grand Rapids, residents are not following primary daily beats. They care about healthcare, rent, social security checks, the devastation in Gaza, and relatives in Lebanon, and whether elected officials will act before it is too late.
In Washington, the race is seen as a proxy war over the Democratic party’s direction after its 2024 defeat. Cable panels debate whether Abdul El-Sayed’s rise is a populist insurgency or if Haley Stevens is the safe, electable choice. Three candidates were vying for the nomination until Mallory McMorrow dropped out on Sunday, leaving El-Sayed and Stevens as the main contenders.
Record Spending and Key Endorsements
Spending has flooded the airwaves: at least five groups have poured more than $34 million into boosting Stevens, led by AIPAC’s United Democracy Project Super PAC, which alone has spent roughly $20 million. Stevens’s ads highlight her work with Barack Obama’s auto industry rescue, while El-Sayed’s TV ads, launched in mid-June, emphasize his Michigan upbringing and endorsement from Senator Bernie Sanders. With McMorrow out, El-Sayed’s apparent poll lead is being tested as both candidates vie for her supporters.
“I think inaction on behalf of the Democrats is costing them votes,” said Toni Gordon, 33, a PhD student at Michigan State and East Lansing election chairperson. “The performative, old-school way of doing things … it’s costing them voter support.” Gordon, who leans left with some conservative values from her Army Reserve service, backs El-Sayed but predicts Stevens will win the primary due to name recognition and party machine support.
Turnout and Demographic Dynamics
Detroit, with one of the largest Black populations in any US city, could decide the state’s outcome. “Michigan is only a swing state if Black people choose not to vote,” Gordon said. “A large number of them will not vote this election.” Another key demographic is young voters: polling shows El-Sayed pulling support from four out of five voters under 44, but the primary on August 4 falls during summer academic recess, when many college students are away from their Michigan addresses.
Michigan, which Trump won in 2024, is politically diverse. Macomb County, which flipped from Obama to Trump, has grown redder, giving Trump 53% in 2020 and nearly 56% in 2024. Wayne County, home to Detroit and Dearborn, went for Kamala Harris in 2024 but swung more than nine points toward Trump compared to 2020. Dearborn itself flipped: Trump became the first Republican to win a plurality there since 2000, in a city with a large Arab American population. In contrast, Kent County, anchored by Grand Rapids, voted for Harris by five points, making Trump the first Republican to win the White House without its support since 1916.
Ali Fawaz, 34, a lifelong Dearborn resident and independent, said the Trump vote was never about Trump. “They watched the genocide in Gaza, and they saw Biden do absolutely nothing,” he said. “Out of desperation, they looked for other options.” Fawaz believes Dearborn is disproportionately attuned to geopolitics, with every senator’s vote on Middle East policy directly resonating. “Every single person has family in Lebanon, or Palestinians here who have family back there, wondering on the daily what’s going to happen to them.”
Candidates’ Platforms and Campaigns
El-Sayed, an epidemiologist, has not taken corporate PAC money. He campaigns for universal healthcare, an end to military aid for Israel over Gaza and Lebanon, abolition of ICE, and aggressive AI regulation. He calls himself a capitalist in an oligarchic society and has endorsements from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Bernie Sanders, and Jewish Voice for Peace Action, the group’s first Senate endorsement. In June, he delivered the keynote at a $16 million mosque opening in Dearborn Heights. Fawaz noted El-Sayed has “changed his tone” since his 2018 gubernatorial run, with different talking points to Arab voters.
Stevens, who flipped a Republican House seat, is backed by the party’s Washington wing, including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and the Detroit News. She wants to expand Obamacare and authored a bill to investigate ICE misconduct, but has faced criticism over a vote seen as pro-ICE and her support for Israel, including a speech where she said she sees Israel in her dreams. Stevens has held few public town halls this cycle, a pattern Republicans criticize. State Attorney General Dana Nessel endorsed her after McMorrow dropped out, calling Stevens “wicked smart” and someone “who connects with people on a level so sincere and genuine that everyone who meets her feels truly seen and heard.”
Anti-Establishment Wave and Voter Fatigue
Misty Ramsey, an El-Sayed supporter who landscapes yards and does deliveries in Macomb, is animated not by the economy but by Gaza. After hearing a Macklemore song about Hind Rajab, a five-year-old killed in Gaza, Ramsey reshaped her views on Biden’s Israel policy and AIPAC’s political spending. “When I realized the scope of the lies, not only is that devastating for the people of Gaza, it’s terrifying for us that we’ve been conditioned to not care,” she said. “That dichotomy – between elected officials and the reality – is very unsettling to me.”
At a recent El-Sayed rally in western Michigan, a Grand Rapids voter once registered as Republican said she backs him for his opposition to AIPAC funding and support for Medicare for All, and because he seems trustworthy. “He seems to be the only one who is truly for the people,” said the voter, whose last name was Dushane.
With about a month to go, the primary remains unsettled. Recent polling before McMorrow dropped out showed El-Sayed with a single-digit lead over Stevens. Voting is already under way, with ballots mailed out in late June. “I don’t know how much it matters,” Gordon said, “but in previous years, there were conversations about young people being disengaged from politics. I noticed that those are the individuals who seem to be the most motivated to participate now. People are fed up with both parties.”
