Victoria's Liberal Leader Under Pressure Over One Nation Alliance
Jess Wilson, the leader of the Victorian Liberal party, is facing mounting pressure to clarify her stance on forming a preference or minority government deal with Pauline Hanson's One Nation party as the state election approaches in November. This political dilemma comes amid internal divisions and a rising threat from the right flank, with recent polls indicating a significant surge in support for One Nation.
Polling Surge and Electoral Implications
Recent polling data reveals a dramatic shift in voter sentiment. In the 2025 state election, One Nation garnered a mere 0.22% of first-preference votes, equivalent to 8,077 out of over 3.6 million cast. However, the first batch of polls this year shows a stark contrast, with One Nation commanding between 11% and 26.5% of first-preference votes, according to Resolve and Roy Morgan surveys respectively. This marks a substantial increase from late 2025, when only 4% of voters indicated support for minor right-wing parties.
Despite caveats such as sample sizes and methodological limitations, this polling surge has alarmed senior Liberals. Former premier Jeff Kennett has publicly urged the party to direct preferences to One Nation and consider governing in minority with them, alongside other minor parties and independents. Kennett's intervention has forced Wilson to address the issue, though she has repeatedly deferred, stating that preference decisions will be made closer to the election.
Internal Party Dynamics and Strategic Moves
Wilson, a moderate leader, maintains that her focus is on securing primary votes for the Liberal-Nationals coalition. She emphasizes that it is too early to finalize preference arrangements, noting that in the 2022 election, the Coalition did not confirm its how-to-vote cards until mid-November. Internal sources suggest that Liberal preferences will primarily impact Labor-Greens contests rather than One Nation's chances, with skepticism persisting about One Nation surpassing the Coalition in first preferences.
The power over preference deals rests with Wilson, the executive committee—dominated by moderates including president Philip Davis—and state director Alyson Hannam. A senior Liberal insider highlighted that winning in Victoria requires appealing to the centre, not aligning with extreme elements. To bolster centrist appeal, the moderate faction is working to recruit stronger candidates and challenge conservative MPs in upcoming preselection contests for upper house seats.
Potential Defections and Political Fallout
Federal MP Barnaby Joyce has revealed that multiple Victorian Coalition MPs have approached One Nation about defecting, with rumours swirling around figures like Moira Deeming. Such a move could provide One Nation with an additional upper house MP and resources for approximately seven months, while also giving Labor ammunition to accuse the Liberals of cosying up to divisive politics.
Labor has already seized on this issue, with Premier Jacinta Allan and Minister for Multicultural Affairs Ingrid Stitt criticizing Wilson for not ruling out a deal with One Nation. Stitt linked Wilson to Hanson's inflammatory comments about Muslims, arguing that only Labor can protect Victoria's multicultural fabric. This strategy risks alienating Victoria's diverse communities, which the Liberals have historically struggled to win over.
Electoral Strategy and Future Outlook
As the election nears, the Liberal party must navigate a complex landscape. Winning inner-Melbourne seats, where Hanson is viewed as divisive, is crucial, yet they cannot afford to ignore the growing support for One Nation in other regions. The decision on preference deals could prove decisive in determining the outcome of the November election, balancing the need to consolidate centrist votes while addressing the threat from the right.
With the political stakes high, all eyes are on Jess Wilson as she maneuvers through these challenges, with her next moves potentially shaping the future of Victorian politics.
