Will Hayward, a journalist specialising in Welsh politics and devolution for the past decade, warns that sudden interest in devolution does not equal expertise. As Andy Burnham makes devolution a central part of his prime ministerial offer, Hayward draws on Wales' experience to highlight crucial lessons.
Fiscal centralisation in the UK
The UK is the most fiscally centralised country in the G7, with over 90% of tax revenue collected and controlled by Westminster. This is twice as centralised as Italy, the next most centralised nation. In the US, about half of government spending is by individual states, while in the UK, the majority is by central government. The prime minister also serves as the equivalent of England's first minister, akin to the governor of Texas being the US president.
Devolution without tools
Wales received its own parliament over 25 years ago, but devolution was set up to fail. The Welsh government has responsibility for economic development but lacks key levers. It has very little borrowing capacity—less than a local council. Local authorities have prudential borrowing powers, but the Welsh government faces hard limits. This forced Wales to rely on councils for borrowing, such as for a school-building programme. Wales' borrowing capacity was frozen from 2016 to 2026, unlike Scotland's which increased with inflation, meaning real-term borrowing power shrank each year.
Wales receives only about 2% of the UK's research and development funding, despite making up 5% of the population. Key infrastructure like rail is not devolved, costing Wales billions. Hayward argues it is impossible to boost the Welsh economy when borrowing is restricted, R&D funding is minimal, and transport network development is hindered.
Cost of governance
Hayward criticises those who balk at the cost of devolution, noting the irony that the current political centre is a mouse-infested palace costing taxpayers up to £40bn to renovate, with a single door costing £9.6m and not working correctly. He calculates that £40bn could cover the annual running cost of an expanded Welsh Senedd for 390 years.
Devolution as nationhood
In Wales and Scotland, devolution is more than an administrative framework—it is an expression of nationhood, acknowledging the UK's four distinct nations. A cookie-cutter approach is inappropriate. Hayward points to Burnham's early misstep: submitting essentially the same guest article to publications in London, Scotland, and Wales, substituting Newham for Merthyr, Tottenham for the Valleys, and Barking for Wrexham, while making commitments in areas like housing, water, and apprenticeships where the UK government has no power. Welsh Labour reacted with fury, with one source calling it a “gift to Plaid Cymru”. Burnham later clarified his support for the current devolution settlement.
Safeguarding devolution
Welsh democracy and the Senedd were established and strengthened through two referendums, yet they can be abolished by a simple majority vote in Westminster, even if every Welsh MP and Senedd member opposes it. Hayward argues that giving people a voice then removing it without their approval is unacceptable.
At a time when the system is widely seen as failing, radical change in governance is vital. But learning from past devolution—what works and what doesn't—is essential to avoid squandering a rare opportunity for reform.
