Labour MPs Issue Ultimatum to Starmer Following Devastating Byelection Defeat
Keir Starmer is confronting intense internal pressure to alter his political direction or risk a leadership challenge within months, following a humiliating byelection loss to the Green Party in Gorton and Denton. The historic defeat has plunged Labour ministers and MPs into renewed despair, just weeks after Starmer survived a previous challenge to his position.
Green Candidate Overturns Massive Labour Majority
Hannah Spencer, a local plumber and Green councillor, achieved a remarkable victory by overturning a 13,000 Labour majority from the general election. Spencer became the Green Party's fifth MP on Friday, marking the first Green MP in northern England. Reform UK's Matt Goodwin secured second place, narrowly ahead of Labour candidate Angeliki Stogia.
The scale of this defeat is particularly shocking given that the area had returned Labour MPs for nearly a century. Even on polling day, Starmer's party believed they could retain the seat. This loss represents a significant blow to Labour's traditional stronghold.
Internal Calls for Immediate Change
While only a handful of backbenchers have openly called for Starmer's departure, even loyal ministers acknowledge that the Green Party's surge under leader Zack Polanski requires immediate attention. The prime minister must address an exodus of Labour voters from the party's left flank.
Angela Rayner, former deputy prime minister and a key figure on Labour's left, delivered a pointed comment describing the result as "a wake-up call" for the party leadership.
Starmer's Defiant Response
Despite mounting pressure, Starmer appears determined to resist calls for change. In a television clip and letter to his MPs, he attacked the Greens as an "extreme" leftwing equivalent of Reform UK, arguing they could not replicate this success in a general election.
One Labour MP described the prime minister as being in "factory reset" mode, reverting to familiar talking points rather than acknowledging the need for substantive change. Another MP lamented, "He isn't even close to getting it, unfortunately."
Timeline for Potential Leadership Challenge
Without a significant turnaround in his political fortunes, Starmer could face a leadership challenge following elections in May to the Scottish and Welsh parliaments and English councils. Labour is currently expected to perform poorly in all these contests.
A new poll released on Friday suggested Labour could be pushed into fourth place in Scotland for the first time, trailing behind not just the SNP and Reform, but also the Scottish Greens.
"I think it hastens everything," one MP on the soft left of the party said regarding the Gorton and Denton result. "I thought we could maybe keep going for another year after May but definitely not now. I don't think anything can save him."
Ministers Express Deep Concern
Ministers typically loyal to the prime minister expressed similarly bleak assessments. One described the result as "cataclysmically bad for us. The worst possible." They added, "It will obviously intensify calls for Keir to make moves to the progressive wing, but the calls will be to do it now – not in a few months or even a few weeks."
The humiliation for Starmer is compounded by the fact that Downing Street blocked Andy Burnham, the popular Greater Manchester mayor, from standing in the byelection. Many within the party believe Burnham's local popularity would have secured the seat for Labour.
Green Party Celebrates Historic Triumph
For the Greens, this victory represents not just their first byelection win but a clear signal to voters that they offer a viable alternative to Reform UK. In her victory speech, Spencer emphasized that she offered voters an alternative to "working to line the pockets of billionaires."
While Reform and Conservative figures attempted to frame the Greens' success with Muslim voters as sectarian politics, Spencer highlighted common ground. "We did this, side by side, shoulder to shoulder. Just as we have always done in this constituency. Because this is Manchester. And we do things differently here," she told cheering supporters.
Policy Divisions Within Labour
Starmer now faces intense pressure to stem expected losses to the Greens in upcoming council elections, particularly in London, and to Plaid Cymru in Wales. This would likely require a shift leftward in policy, especially following the departure of his chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney.
One point of contention among ministers is the government's plan to make it harder for migrants to achieve settled status in the UK, extending the waiting period from five to ten years. "The antidote to division and hostility is unity," said one MP. "But you've got to mean it. You can't keep playing dog-whistle politics on migration and wondering why you're losing votes among ethnic minority voters."
However, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is expected to proceed with these plans next week, with senior Labour sources dismissing concerns that they would further alienate Muslim voters as "plain wrong."
Uncertain Path Forward
At a Labour dinner in the West Midlands on Friday night, Mahmood warned against "learning the wrong lessons" from their defeat by shifting too far in any particular direction. Some cabinet members believe the byelection result will nevertheless push Number Ten into action.
"It will probably mean a shift to the left, though where that leads in a general election is another question," one cabinet minister predicted.
Others acknowledged Starmer's precarious position but questioned whether a leadership change would improve matters. "It's not working but I don't see what the alternative is," another cabinet minister conceded, highlighting the deep uncertainty within Labour ranks following this historic defeat.
