One Nation member for Farrer, David Farley, celebrated with Pauline Hanson after winning the byelection, which saw an almost 33-point primary swing at the expense of the Coalition and other right-of-centre parties.
The Scale of the Swing
Expectations were low for the Coalition going into Saturday's Farrer byelection to replace longtime Liberal member Sussan Ley. With Labor not running, the Australian Electoral Commission predicted a contest between One Nation's David Farley and independent Michelle Milthorpe – the first time a major party was absent since the 1980s. This proved correct, with Farley claiming almost 40% of the primary vote and 57% of the two-candidate preferred vote. Milthorpe also saw a swing of over 8 points, ending with just over 28% of primary votes.
Geographic Spread
The One Nation swing played out across the electorate, even in regional centres like Albury where the Liberal party had previously performed well, but gains were larger in rural areas. The Nationals, who did not run in 2025, saw a near-10 point swing, but it was not enough to offset what Dr. Luke Mansillo of the University of Sydney called the "total destruction" of the Liberal party in Farrer. The two Coalition parties combined barely secured 20% of the primary vote – less than half of Ley's mark a year ago.
Consolidation of the Right
One Nation's swing also came at the expense of other right-of-centre parties. Family First, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, and Gerard Rennick's People First all lost support, reflecting what Mansillo terms the "consolidation of the rightwing vote under a single party." The Greens saw a 2.7-point drop, while Legalise Cannabis gained 2.3 points.
Mansillo argues this is not just about a collapse in Ley's personal vote – she was the sitting member for over 25 years – but shows that the "dam has broken" for the Coalition. "It's not like if they had put up someone else they would have done better," he says. "After decades of the rural economy becoming more precarious due to economic rationalism, there is pent-up resentment at green energy and racial minorities." He points to Hanson's declaration that supporters want to "take the country back."
Milthorpe's Growth Centred on Major Centres
Farrer is a large seat stretching along much of the Victoria-New South Wales border, including Albury, Griffith, and Deniliquin. One Nation won in 74 polling booths, taking upwards of 60% of primary votes at some smaller centres. Milthorpe increased her winning booths to 15, almost entirely in Albury and one in Griffith. The Nationals picked up one pre-poll booth, while the Liberals retained a few mobile booths visiting aged care centres and hospitals. This contrasts sharply with the 2025 election, where One Nation did not come first in a single booth. The swing was so large that One Nation won almost every polling booth previously held by the Liberal party.
