Sir Keir Starmer's premiership ended on June 22, 2026, after a tenure marked by terminal decline that began just over 10 months into his term, according to an analysis by Craig Munro. The question of when Starmer would step down had been circulating among Labour MPs for months, with the earliest known reference appearing in the i paper in August 2025. Only Liz Truss has seen a faster collapse in recent decades, a fact that Munro says should serve as a cautionary tale for Starmer's likely successor, Andy Burnham.
Burnham's rapid ascent to Number 10
Burnham, currently Mayor of Greater Manchester, is expected to become Prime Minister in just over three weeks without a general election. If no leadership contest occurs, he will be the first PM in over 60 years to take office without being voted in at the previous election. Munro notes that Burnham left Parliament in 2017, and three general elections have passed since then, raising questions about the specificity of his policy plans compared to Starmer's vague proposals during his time in opposition.
Red flags from Burnham's mayoral record
Munro points to several decisions from Burnham's tenure as Mayor that may cause concern. The Clean Air Zone (CAZ) in Manchester, designed to charge drivers of high-polluting vehicles, was scrapped after significant progress had been made. In contrast, London Mayor Sadiq Khan implemented a similar Ultra-Low Emission Zone despite strong opposition, resulting in a 40% reduction in toxic air-related deaths in the capital. Critics suggest Burnham's tendency to avoid unpopular decisions could hinder his ability to tackle tough issues like welfare reform and defence funding.
Another example is Burnham's 2017 pledge to end rough sleeping by 2020. According to the Financial Times, progress was made until the COVID-19 pandemic, but the Mayor's office lacked the necessary powers to fully deliver. When focus shifted, rough sleeping numbers in Manchester returned to pre-pledge levels.
Strengths and expectations
Despite these concerns, Munro acknowledges that Burnham possesses qualities Starmer lacked, including charisma, political zeal, and an ambitious approach. However, the high expectations placed on him mean he has much to prove. Munro concludes that the wait to see how Burnham performs will be short, given the anticipated speed of his appointment.
