Andy Burnham appears poised to return to Westminster this weekend, with polls indicating victory in the Makerfield byelection. His intention to replace Keir Starmer as prime minister is now clear, sparking discussions about his potential cabinet.
The Big Jobs
The most pressing question is who Burnham would appoint as chancellor. Ed Miliband, the energy secretary, is the leading candidate, having championed Burnham within the parliamentary party. Both share a desire for radical change, from tax reform to public control of utilities. However, net zero policy could cause friction, especially Burnham's focus on reindustrialization versus Miliband's opposition to new North Sea oil and gas licenses. Despite skepticism, one Burnham backer stated: "The Labour party needs to stop worrying and learn to love Ed Miliband."
Shabana Mahmood, the home secretary, and Wes Streeting have also been mentioned as potential chancellors, but Mahmood is likely to remain in her current role. The foreign secretary position is a key unknown, where Burnham lacks depth. It could be offered to a suitable ally, such as Streeting or former defence secretary John Healey, or even Rachel Reeves, who has a history with Burnham. Another unlikely option is offering the role to Starmer himself.
The Key Fixers, Aides, and Enforcers
Louise Haigh, former transport secretary, has become Burnham's most influential organizer and is expected to receive a significant cabinet role, possibly as chief secretary to the prime minister. Anneliese Midgley, Knowsley MP and campaign chief in Makerfield, is also likely to get a big role. Miatta Fahnbulleh and backbencher Yuan Yang are tipped for promotion. Josh Simons, who gave up his seat for Burnham, is expected to enter Downing Street. Burnham's chief of staff, Kevin Lee, is likely to continue in No 10. Other policy figures include Mat Lawrence, Mark McVitie, Alfie Stirling, Hannah Peaker, Neal Lawson, Luke Hurst, and Grace Pritchard.
Who May Stay Put?
Lisa Nandy would remain in cabinet, possibly with a promotion. Defence stability is important after Healey's resignation, especially if Dan Jarvis can address defence investment issues. Alternatives like Al Carns may cause trouble. Nick Thomas-Symonds, a Starmer loyalist, could stay due to trade negotiations with Europe, though his brief includes the stalled Hillsborough law, which Burnham is keen to fix. Heidi Alexander, transport secretary, has a close relationship with Burnham despite being a Starmer loyalist. Bridget Phillipson, education secretary, may stay to deliver Send changes, though her relationship with Lucy Powell could be strained due to their past deputy leadership battle.
