Australian health officials warned the federal government nearly two decades ago that a global influenza pandemic could force the closure of schools and international borders, newly declassified documents reveal.
Cabinet Papers Reveal Early Pandemic Planning
Previously secret cabinet papers, released by the National Archives of Australia, show that by October 2005, pandemic planning had reached the highest levels of government. The issue was debated by the National Security Committee of federal cabinet, highlighting the seriousness with which the threat was viewed.
The discussions took place just two years after the SARS outbreak in Asia and presciently outlined many of the measures that would later be deployed during the Covid-19 crisis. In November of that year, then Foreign Affairs Minister Alexander Downer told senior colleagues the H5N1 avian flu strain posed a significant risk of mutating into a human-transmissible virus, sparking a pandemic with "potentially devastating consequences" for Australia and the world.
Warnings of Severe Economic and Social Fallout
Advice presented to the cabinet, led by then Prime Minister John Howard, was stark. It flagged potential bans on cruise ships and foreign aircraft, as well as the isolation of travellers to contain a virus.
A cabinet note warned of dire possible outcomes: "loss of life; a deep negative economic shock leading to significant declines in the workforce and disruption to international trade." It specifically noted that stringent border controls could exacerbate the economic damage.
The documents also highlighted the vulnerability of Australians abroad, warning that travel restrictions could be imposed with little notice, potentially stranding citizens overseas. Contingency plans to assist them were being refined, but officials cautioned that evacuation would be "difficult and costly."
Domestic Measures Foreshadowed Covid-19 Response
The planned domestic response for a declared pandemic was extensive and mirrors the actions taken from 2020 onwards. Proposed measures included:
- Closure of international borders.
- Restrictions on domestic travel.
- Quarantining of affected areas.
- Closure of schools and businesses.
The cabinet was told that state and territory governments would need to lead a "high level response" to maintain public services, law and order, and clear communication "to prevent panic"—a framework likened to the response to a terrorist attack or natural disaster.
At the time, the country held a stockpile of antiviral drugs like Tamiflu and Relenza, sufficient for nearly 20% of the population, and trials for a domestically produced vaccine were underway. The government also conducted drills to test its preparedness.
The 2005 warnings stand in stark contrast to the eventual impact of Covid-19, during which, a 2024 review found, public trust in government was eroded. The pandemic led to the deaths of more than 21,000 Australians between March 2020 and January 2024.
