Myanmar's military regime is pressing ahead with a controversial national election this Sunday, the first since it seized power in a 2021 coup. While the vote has been widely condemned internationally, analysts point to a single, decisive factor behind the junta's ability to regain momentum: the shifting support of neighbouring China.
Beijing's Strategic Pivot Bolsters Junta
After appearing beleaguered by a determined patchwork of opposition groups, the military has managed to retake some territory and stabilise its position. Jason Tower, a senior expert on Myanmar at the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime, states the turnaround is largely due to Beijing. "This is really all China playing a role in tilting things in favour of the military regime," he said.
China's multifaceted support has been crucial. It has provided the junta with newer drone technologies and continued weapon transfers. Diplomatically, Beijing has boosted the regime's standing by including it in platforms like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit. Perhaps most significantly, China has used its influence along the 2,185km (1,358-mile) shared border to pressure powerful northern ethnic armed groups, forcing ceasefires and even the handover of territory back to the military.
A Complex Balancing Act for China
China's relationship with Myanmar is driven by pragmatic economic and security interests, not ideological support for the junta. Beijing is a major investor with ambitious plans, including a corridor linking south-western China to the Indian Ocean. The post-coup conflict and economic chaos severely disrupted these infrastructure projects.
Beijing's initial muted response to the 2021 coup turned to frustration as fighting spiralled and organised crime, particularly scam compounds in border areas, exploded. This frustration led China to tacitly approve a major offensive by northern ethnic armed groups against the junta in late 2023, which caught the military off guard and saw it lose vast swathes of territory.
However, according to Morgan Michaels, a research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, China soon "corrected course." Fearing the potential collapse of the state apparatus and even greater chaos, Beijing used border closures to pressure those same ethnic groups to back down. "Did China really ever intend to make those groups so strong that they were going to topple the Myanmar state apparatus? I don't think so," Michaels said.
A Sham Election and Future Uncertainties
For now, China has thrown its weight behind the military's election plans. The Chinese foreign minister, Wang Yi, expressed hope the vote would achieve "domestic peace" and "national reconciliation." China will send election observers, alongside countries including Russia and Vietnam.
The election itself is dominated by the military's proxy party, the Union Solidarity and Development party, with no true opposition running. Under the constitution, junta chief Min Aung Hlaing is obliged to assume a top role, though many believe he will be unwilling to relinquish power.
The military has sought to reassure Beijing by promising to advance economic projects and crack down on scam compounds, even bombing parts of the infamous KK Park. However, analysts warn China's support is conditional. Jason Tower suggests that if the military fails to form ceasefires or make progress on infrastructure within two years, Beijing could pivot away again.
Despite China's role in stabilising the regime, anti-China sentiment is rising in Myanmar, with some perceiving Beijing as stoking conflict for leverage. Yun Sun of the Stimson Center disputes this, arguing China doesn't need a war to exert influence. "I think what the Chinese will say is that they see the situation as a dynamism, that a balance of power will eventually lead to some stability," she said. "Neither side is necessarily the horse that China has picked."
