In a radical policy shift aimed at tackling a demographic crisis, China has introduced a new 13% tax on contraceptives while slashing costs for childcare and marriage services. The move, which came into effect on 1 January 2026, removes the value-added tax (VAT) exemption from items like condoms, birth control pills, and contraceptive devices.
A Decade After One-Child Policy Ends, A New Push for Babies
The tax overhaul arrives exactly ten years after China formally ended its infamous one-child policy. Having swapped strict population control for urgent pronatalist measures, Beijing is now scrambling to address an ageing society and sluggish economy by encouraging marriage and childbearing. Official data underscores the crisis: China's population shrank for the third consecutive year in 2024, with only 9.54 million births – a figure roughly half that recorded a decade ago.
Alongside the controversial contraceptive tax, authorities have rolled out other incentives, including extended parental leave and direct cash handouts. However, the decision to make birth control more expensive has ignited fierce debate and ridicule online. As retailers urged customers to stock up, one social media user quipped they would buy "a lifetime's worth of condoms now." Critics argue the real barrier to larger families is not the cost of prevention, but the immense financial burden of raising a child in modern China.
Public Skepticism and Expert Analysis
Many citizens remain unconvinced by the government's latest tactic. Daniel Luo, a 36-year-old father from Henan province with no plans for more children, dismissed the tax's likely impact. "It's like when subway fares increase. When they go up by a yuan or two, people who take the subway don't change their habits. You still have to take the subway, right?" he told the BBC.
Others expressed concern over dangerous unintended consequences. Rosy Zhao, from Xi'an, warned that pricing some out of contraception could lead students or those in financial difficulty to take risks, calling this the policy's "most dangerous potential outcome." The debate follows reports of intrusive measures, with local officials in some provinces phoning women to ask about menstrual cycles and childbirth plans – actions defended as a way to identify expectant mothers.
Broader Demographic Crisis and Symbolic Gestures
Experts are divided on the tax's true purpose. Demographer Yi Fuxian suggested the government may be primarily seeking to raise revenue amid rising debt and a property downturn. Meanwhile, Henrietta Levin from the Center for Strategic and International Studies viewed the move as largely symbolic, reflecting Beijing's desire to be seen as actively confronting strikingly low fertility levels.
Levin cautioned that such heavy-handed efforts risk alienating the public, noting: "The [Communist] party can’t help but insert itself into every decision that it cares about. So it ends up being its own worst enemy in some ways." The challenges are not China's alone; neighbouring nations like South Korea and Japan are also grappling with plummeting birth rates.
For some, like Daniel Luo, the issue transcends economics. He points to a cultural shift where young people increasingly avoid deep human connection, citing rising sex toy sales as a sign people are "satisfying themselves," leading to fewer couples and marriages. As China experiments with fiscal levers to engineer a baby boom, the public response suggests a complex web of financial, social, and personal factors will ultimately determine its success or failure.
