Iceland is set to hold a national referendum in August on resuming European Union accession negotiations, reflecting a surprising resurgence of interest in the bloc among Nordic nations. The decision comes as twin threats from the east and west—namely, Russian aggression and US President Donald Trump's expansionist rhetoric—have made EU membership more appealing. However, questions linger over whether Brussels can reform its sclerotic institutions to meet the geopolitical moment.
A Shift in Nordic Attitudes
Iceland's renewed EU enthusiasm is not an isolated phenomenon. In Norway, the main conservative opposition party now supports joining the bloc, while the Faroe Islands are reconsidering independence from EU member Denmark. Two key factors are driving this shift: Trump's pressure campaign on Greenland and concerns over Russian interference. Trump has threatened to annex Greenland, a sovereign Danish territory, citing US security needs, which has pushed Greenlanders closer to Denmark and the EU. Meanwhile, Iceland's foreign minister, Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir, has warned of covert Russian meddling in the upcoming referendum, potentially distorting the outcome with disinformation tactics reminiscent of Nigel Farage's Brexit campaign.
The EU's Internal Challenges
Despite growing external interest, the EU faces significant internal hurdles. The bloc's institutions are often criticized for being rule-bound and inefficient. A recent controversy over EU commissioners complaining about the limited range of their official electric vehicles on the Brussels-Strasbourg route highlights this issue. The European parliament's treaty-mandated monthly relocation between the two cities costs taxpayers tens of millions of euros annually, yet France refuses to give up Strasbourg for reasons of national prestige. Such inefficiencies, which once scandalized British Brexiters, now seem less off-putting to Nordic voters who prioritize security and stability.
Geopolitical Pressures and EU Reform
The intensifying competition among Russia, the US, and China in the Arctic region is concentrating minds on the benefits of multinational groupings like the EU. Iceland, like Greenland, has no armed forces and relies on NATO—primarily the US—for defense. However, Trump's unpredictable leadership has raised doubts about the reliability of that security umbrella. EU responses to Trump have been uncoordinated, and the bloc's support for Ukraine, while unified in principle, has often been too little, too late. The EU also struggles with enlargement policy, as candidate countries like Turkey have been waiting since 1987, and the creation of a credible European army remains years away.
The UK's European Dilemma
Renewed interest in the EU is also evident in the UK, where the upcoming byelection in Makerfield on June 18—coincidentally the anniversary of the Battle of Waterloo—has become a proxy debate on Europe. Prime Minister Keir Starmer seeks to reset UK-EU relations, while potential leadership rivals Andy Burnham and Wes Streeting favor a return to the EU fold. Reform UK, meanwhile, wants the vote to focus on the government's alleged betrayal of Brexit. This echoes the Brexit revisited scenario, albeit without the humor.
Can the EU Rise to the Occasion?
Faith among Icelanders, Greenlanders, and other northern neighbors that the EU can help them survive and prosper in a more dangerous world may not be misplaced, but it requires the bloc to seize the moment. Predators like Putin and Trump, along with reactionary forces such as Reform UK, will not wait for Europe if it fails to act. The whingeing commissioners should indeed get on their bikes—or better yet, focus on the urgent reforms needed to make the EU fit for purpose in a perilous world.
