Economist Joachim Klement's 12-year streak of correctly predicting the World Cup winner has come to an end after the Netherlands were eliminated in the round of 32. Klement's economic model, which had successfully forecast Germany (2014), France (2018), and Argentina (2022) as champions, pointed to Ronald Koeman's Dutch side for the 2026 tournament.
Netherlands exit in penalty shootout
The Netherlands topped Group F with a 5-1 win over Sweden and strong group-stage performances. However, they lost to Morocco in a penalty shootout, with several missed spot kicks sealing their fate. The exit marked the first time Klement's model failed to pick the eventual winner since he began using it in 2014.
Klement admits 'ran out of luck'
Writing on his investment blog after the Netherlands' defeat, Klement said: "Eventually, after 12 years and being lucky in three World Cups, I ran out of luck. I set out to prove that economic models are not as accurate as many people believe and finally, I was proven right."
Model also missed Japan upset
Klement's model also predicted Japan would defeat Brazil in the round of 32, but Brazil won 2-1 thanks to a stoppage-time goal from Gabriel Martinelli. Neymar responded on social media, posting: "Mr Joachim Klement … Please try again in the next World Cup." Klement later backed Brazil to win, saying "after last night I dare to believe as well." However, his model also predicted Germany to reach the last 16, raising doubts about Brazil's chances against Côte d'Ivoire or Norway.
