By mid-July, Andy Burnham is expected to become prime minister, triggering a cabinet reshuffle. Key figures like Ed Miliband, Shabana Mahmood, and Wes Streeting are tipped for top roles, while others such as Liz Kendall and Steve Reed face an abrupt end to their ministerial careers.
Definite cabinet members
Ed Miliband is a strong contender for chancellor, according to his allies. Even if not, the energy secretary is a Labour heavyweight and no Keir Starmer fan, so a cabinet role is inevitable.
Shabana Mahmood may stay as home secretary, where her hardline immigration policies could temper Burnham's left-leaning stance. Under other circumstances, she could have run for leader.
Wes Streeting, who endorsed Burnham, wants a big job in return. He is tipped for chancellor, though he resigned as health secretary just six weeks ago in protest against Starmer. The Foreign Office is another possibility.
Angela Rayner, former communities secretary, left government in September 2024 over an unpaid stamp duty mix-up but was cleared by HMRC in May. As a leading left-wing figure, she is almost certain to return.
Lou Haigh resigned as transport secretary in November 2024 after a fraud conviction over a missing work phone. Allies insist the circumstances are less murky, and as a Burnham organiser, she expects to rejoin the cabinet.
Anneliese Midgley, MP for Knowsley since 2024, has a long background as a Labour organiser and played a central role in Burnham's campaign. She is set for a frontbench role.
Sally Jameson, MP for Doncaster since 2024, is another northern female MP close to Burnham. She has no ministerial experience but a background in Labour politics and as a prison officer.
Yvette Cooper, foreign secretary, is hugely experienced and knows Burnham well from the 2015 leadership contest, where he finished just above her. She is expected to stay in cabinet, possibly in a different role.
Lisa Nandy, culture secretary, feels detached from Starmer and is ideologically aligned with Burnham. Her Wigan constituency borders his in Makerfield.
Douglas Alexander, Scotland secretary, was brought back by Starmer after a nine-year gap. He is an experienced hand from the Blair and Brown cabinets.
Miatta Fahnbulleh, a 2024 entrant with an economics and thinktank background, was immediately brought into government by Starmer. With close links to Miliband, she is an outside bet for chancellor.
Jonathan Reynolds disliked being moved from business to chief whip. He missed Starmer's No 10 departure and was seen with Burnham when he posed with MPs on Monday.
Maybe
Nick Thomas-Symonds, Cabinet Office minister for European relations, is close to Starmer but may stay in his role due to a postponed EU summit.
Rachel Reeves, the UK's first female chancellor, attended Burnham's rally on Monday but her future is uncertain.
Darren Jones, chief secretary to the prime minister, is a key Starmer figure but considered an effective operator, so may find a role.
John Healey left Starmer's government over defence investment concerns. He might return in defence or another job.
Bridget Phillipson is not on the Burnham bandwagon but has a case to stay in education, where she shepherded SEND plans, or get another job.
David Lammy, justice secretary and deputy PM, is a major figure close to Starmer. He defended Starmer's legacy on TV but his transition is unclear.
Dan Jarvis, defence minister for less than two weeks, will push the defence investment plan through before the change of PM, then may return to a junior role.
Out
Steve Reed, communities secretary, is the ultimate Starmer loyalist, co-founding Labour Together. He awaits a return to the backbenches.
Richard Hermer, attorney general, was a close friend of Starmer. He will return to the upper house and his legal career.
Peter Kyle, business secretary, confirmed Starmer's downfall by saying he would not be "delusional." He has no ties to Team Burnham.
Liz Kendall, science and technology secretary, is on the right of the party and not part of the Burnham gang, so will almost certainly be replaced.
James Murray, shifted from Treasury to health secretary, will be in the job long enough for his picture on the wall but little more.
Keir Starmer is unlikely to continue as foreign secretary, despite chatter about showing continuity. Neither man wants it, and Starmer will likely focus on a long summer holiday.
