The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has released new population projections indicating that deaths will outnumber births in the UK every year from 2026 onwards. The data also suggests that population growth over the next few decades will be slower than previously anticipated.
Revised Population Growth Figures
Approximately 1.7 million people are expected to be added to the UK population between 2024 and 2034, bringing the total from 69.3 million to 71 million. This represents a 2.5% increase. However, this is significantly lower than the previous ONS estimate from last year, which projected a rise of 3 million (a 4.3% increase) to 72.2 million by 2034.
The downward revision is attributed to a sharp decline in net migration and lower future fertility rates. James Robards, ONS head of household and population projections, stated: "Our latest projections indicate slower population growth than previously projected. This is mainly due to lower migration assumptions – reflective of the recent steep fall in net migration – and lower fertility assumptions."
Long-Term Trends
UK population growth is expected to slow further during the 2030s and 2040s, peaking at 72.5 million in 2054 before declining to 72.1 million by 2064 and 71.4 million by 2074. Previous projections had suggested continuous growth until 2096.
Net migration is anticipated to be the sole driver of population growth in the coming decades. In the year to June 2025, net migration was estimated at 204,000, a 69% drop from 649,000 in the previous 12 months. Over the 10 years to 2034, net migration is projected to add 2.2 million people, while natural change (more deaths than births) will subtract 450,000, resulting in a net increase of 1.7 million.
Regional Variations
Population peaks will occur at different times across the UK. England is projected to peak at 62.1 million in 2056, Wales at 3.2 million in 2035, Scotland at 5.6 million in 2033, and Northern Ireland at 1.9 million in 2031.
Age Structure Shifts
The projections highlight an aging population. The number of people of pensionable age is set to rise from 12.4 million to 14.2 million by 2034, accounting for one in five of the total population. Meanwhile, children under 16 will decline from 12.6 million (18.2% of the population) to 11 million (15.5%). By the peak in 2054, pensioners will constitute 22% of the population, and under-16s just 14.5%.
Maike Currie, vice-president of personal finance at PensionBee, commented: "The UK's demographic dividend is turning into a deepening demographic drag. For the pension system, this means fewer future workers supporting more retirees. With earlier figures showing a third of those leaving the UK are aged 16 to 34, the pension system faces a double hit: fewer contributors and more retirees, putting real strain on the state pension and long-term investment flows."
The ONS emphasizes that these projections are not forecasts or predictions but are based on current and past trends.
