The International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) has issued a report finding that Russia launched hundreds of drones and covert UAVs across Britain and Europe from its shadow fleet in preparation for a future conflict. The drones targeted airports, military bases and nuclear sites, including RAF Fairford, Feltwell, Lakenheath and Mildenhall, as well as dozens of sites across continental Europe.
Shadow fleet used as launch platforms
‘We assess it is likely that Russian-linked vessels and the ‘shadow fleet’ were used as launch or recovery platforms for UAVs as part of the Kremlin’s wider unconventional war on Europe,’ the IISS warned. Since 2024, mystery drone sightings have plagued airports, military bases and civilian areas as Russia increasingly tests the limits of its spyware.
Mapping air defence gaps
‘The Kremlin was likely able to map reaction times, coverage gaps and limitations across European integrated air defences,’ the IISS added. The drones also spied on critical infrastructure to prompt a ‘decisive opening operation in high-intensity conflict’, the report warned.
Expert analysis
Chatham House Russia expert Keir Giles told Metro that the report’s findings are not surprising. ‘The shadow fleet has been pinpointed before as the likely source for some of these drones. Russia finds out what is possible, but it also learns the victim country’s willingness to respond,’ he explained. ‘That’s useful information if they’re pushing the boundaries further or deciding what they could get away with in terms of preparation for an overt attack before they actually launch it.’
A lack of response from the countries being probed by these drones only ‘encourages’ Russia to continue this warfare, he added. Giles said that targeted countries need reassurance from their governments that they can deter and defend against a potential attack. ‘Unfortunately, at the moment, neither of those things is true. So whatever is happening behind the scenes is not making it to the public consciousness, and that will only heighten the impression that Russia is being allowed to carry out these actions, which in so many ways are indistinguishable from acts of war, without suffering any consequences at all.’
Broader context of Russian aggression
For years, leading experts in the UK have warned that Russia is already ‘at war’ with the UK. Cyber threats and mysterious drone incursions have been attributed to foreign actors. In late 2024, Recorded Future News reported a ‘record number of incidents’ impacting the UK’s critical drinking water supplies in 2024, without official disclosure.
Between August 2023 and March 2024 alone, 46,000 flights in areas such as the Baltic, Black Sea and eastern Mediterranean logged interference issues believed to be due to Russian interference. In early 2023, MP Oliver Dowden revealed that the National Cyber Security Centre issued an ‘official threat notice’ to operators of critical national infrastructure, citing an ‘emerging risk posed by state-aligned adversaries’ as a result of the Russia-Ukraine war.
