Europe is in a profound state of crisis, caught between Vladimir Putin's Russia, Donald Trump's US, and Xi Jinping's China. Yet, despite rising nationalism, climate challenges, and economic slowdown, many Europeans would still choose to live in Europe. The news is not all negative; Hungary's former autocrat Viktor Orbán was recently ousted in a landslide election.
Assessing the Continent's Perils
Nathalie Tocci and Anu Bradford assembled leading thinkers from across Europe to assess threats. Their collective diagnosis is sombre: the biggest threat is an expanded war in Europe, potentially spreading from Ukraine to the Baltic states via the Suwałki Gap. Europe's deep dependency on an increasingly hostile US makes it vulnerable. Historian Timothy Garton Ash noted, "We simply can't depend on the US as a backstop for our security." Far-right nationalist populism is still on the rise, threatening democracy and sound policies on climate, energy, trade, technology, and migration.
A Realistic Yet Hopeful View
The aim is not doom but a realistic assessment as a precondition for hope. The answer lies in a stronger Europe, which is within reach. Dutch philosopher Luuk van Middelaar said, "We have what it takes: a small yet rich continent with academic excellence, belief in science, climate policies, and liberties." Europe has a large market, world-class researchers, untapped capital, and vibrant democracies.
Addressing Vulnerabilities
Europe is already acting: the twin threat from Putin and US retrenchment is driving massive investment in self-defence. Trump's protectionism has spurred new trade deals with Latin America, India, Indonesia, and Australia. It has also pushed Europe to eliminate internal trade barriers to unleash the integrated single market.
The Need for Activism
Optimism must give way to activism. Young Europeans mobilised for climate action and against the Gaza war. Hungarians turned out to oust Orbán. In Barcelona, progressive politicians from Europe, the Americas, Africa, and Asia developed a platform to revamp democracy and promote peace. Leaders are called to seize this energy.
For Europe to thrive, it needs principled leaders, ambitious companies, and engaged citizens. The continent's future belongs to all, requiring collective ideas and support. Nathalie Tocci is a Guardian Europe columnist, and Anu Bradford is author of Digital Empires. Their film, Why Europe Matters, is out on 24 April 2026.
