Donald Trump will arrive in Beijing this week for a two-day summit with President Xi Jinping, knowing that Xi holds all the cards. The US president is counting on China to influence Iran and help him out of his latest mess, but the price may be high, including for Taiwan.
Trump's Weakened Position
Like an out-of-control wrecking ball, Trump has smashed up the international order without much thought for consequences. Lacking coherent strategies or consistent aims, he power-trips erratically from one fragile region to another, leaving misery and confusion in his wake. After a string of humiliating policy implosions over Ukraine, Gaza, NATO, Greenland, and now Iran and Lebanon, Trump craves a diplomatic success to flaunt at home. However, his hopes of vote-winning trade pacts are overshadowed by his latest war of choice. He needs Xi's promise not to arm Iran if all-out fighting resumes and Xi's help keeping the Strait of Hormuz open as part of a mooted framework peace deal.
The weakness of Trump's position is fuelling speculation that reduced US support for Taiwan may be Xi's price for playing nice. Xi knows the Iran war is deeply unpopular with US voters. Trump is universally blamed for pushing up global energy, food, and medicine prices. European allies have refused to bail him out, Russia is undeservedly benefiting from inflated oil prices, and poorer countries bear the brunt. Trump is not winning militarily either, as shown by his half-baked, on-off Project Freedom. He is desperate to escape the quagmire he created and reduce Xi's advantage.
China's Advantage
For China, Trump is the gift that keeps on giving. Thanks to him, the US is increasingly viewed internationally as an aggressive potential enemy or unreliable friend. Its loss of influence is Beijing's gain, as Trump's volatility assists Xi's promotion of China as the new guardian of global stability. The Iran impasse is drawing US forces away from Asia, reducing its military capacity to defend Taiwan and regional allies from future Chinese aggression. The downside for Xi is the negative impact of the war on energy prices, global trade, and export demand at a time when China's economy is already struggling. Last year, about 80% of Iranian oil shipments were bought by China, shipments the US Navy is now blocking. So far, Beijing has largely managed to offset supply shortfalls from the Gulf by drawing on reserves, capitalising on green energy, and buying more oil from countries like Brazil and Russia. But for the world's largest importer of crude oil, safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is critical.
China is urging both sides to embrace a negotiated settlement. It hosted direct talks last week with Iran's foreign minister and is backing Pakistani intermediaries. Recalling China's successful 2023 fence-mending between Saudi Arabia and Tehran, anxious Gulf states are counting on Beijing's ability to influence its Iranian ally. Xi is unafraid to take on Trump, warning recently against a return to the law of the jungle and stating that the authority of international rule of law must be maintained.
Taiwan at Risk
The wishful idea that the US-Israel aggression against Iran has shaken Xi into cooperating would be more convincing if the war had actually succeeded. Instead, Trump has exposed the limitations of US power and revealed a startling lack of strategic understanding. While he prefers a peaceful outcome, Xi's top priority is not digging Trump out of a hole in the Middle East. If he chooses, Xi has the means to prolong the US nightmare by expanding deniable military support for Iran, as he has done for Russia in Ukraine.
Trump seems aware of this risk. He wrote to Xi last month, asking him not to supply weaponry to Tehran, and said he had received assurances China would not do so. But the Foundation for Defense of Democracies claims China already provides Iran with dual-use precursor chemicals for its ballistic missiles, satellite intelligence, and help with sanctions evasion. More overtly military aid could flow to Tehran if Trump fails to satisfy Xi in their summit talks.
For a man who likes to boast he holds all the cards, Trump may find himself seriously short of trumps when he sits down with Xi. His own 2026 national defence strategy states that deterring China in the Indo-Pacific is of primary importance, yet Trump has hopelessly compromised the US position with his Middle East obsessions. Xi's top external priority is the unification of communist China with a de facto independent, democratic Taiwan, a personal legacy project he has repeatedly threatened to pursue by force. Pentagon planners believe China's military could be ready to launch an invasion next year.
The US says its policy favouring the status quo on Taiwan has not changed, but Trump is famously flaky on Taiwan. He frequently makes contradictory statements, recently saying that any move to invade was up to Xi, suggesting he does not care much either way. Summit bottom line: will a weakened Trump cut back US support for Taipei in return for Xi's help with Iran and favourable deals on rare-earth minerals and agricultural imports? Serious questions also surround Trump's commitment to South Korea and Japan and his ability to persuade China to rein in North Korea.
In other words, will Trump claim another fraudulent triumph in Beijing while selling out US allies and recklessly demolishing decades of painstaking diplomacy that has prevented a war in the Pacific over Taiwan? This week, due to wrecker Trump, the writing is on the wall for the future of the US as the number one global superpower. With all his blundering, this know-nothing numbskull has put China in the driving seat.
