Reform UK councillors are celebrating after winning seats in all 12 contested wards in Hartlepool, marking a significant breakthrough in the local elections. The party's success was part of a broader trend across England, where it made gains in traditional Labour and Conservative strongholds.
Labour's Mixed Results
Labour's performance was poor but not as catastrophic as some had feared. The party lost control of councils including Hartlepool, Tameside, Redditch, and Tamworth, primarily to Reform UK. High-profile figures like Angela Rayner in Tameside and Lisa Nandy in Wigan saw their local bases eroded. However, election experts John Curtice and Michael Thrasher predicted Labour could lose just over 1,200 of the 2,500 seats it defended, a figure that may offer some relief after weeks of dire warnings. The prospect of losing control in Wales and falling to third place in Scotland, however, remains a serious emotional blow.
Reform UK's Gains and Potential Plateau
Reform UK emerged as the big winner, capturing seats in former Labour heartlands across the Midlands and the North, including Newcastle-under-Lyme, and also taking Havering council in east London. Nigel Farage celebrated gains in Suffolk, Norfolk, and Essex, targeting senior Conservatives. However, election expert Peter Kellner noted that Reform's share of seats fell from 41% in 2023 to about 33% this year, suggesting support may have peaked.
Conservatives Under Pressure
The Conservative Party faced significant losses to Reform, particularly in Essex, home to leader Kemi Badenoch. The Tories also lost ground to the Liberal Democrats in southern England. A bright spot was retaining control of Westminster and regaining Wandsworth in London. The party managed to see off Reform in Bexley, south-east London.
Greens See Vote Share Rise but Seats Lag
The Green Party increased its vote share since 2022 but struggled to convert this into seat gains due to the first-past-the-post system. Poor expectation management and allegations of antisemitism against leader Zack Polanski may have hindered progress. Key targets in Greater Manchester and Hackney are still to be decided.
Liberal Democrats' Mixed Bag
The Liberal Democrats lost control of Hull but gained Stockport and Portsmouth. They hope to win Hampshire and Surrey from the Tories, continuing to break down the 'blue wall' in southern England. In south-west London, they failed to take Merton from Labour but turned Richmond into a one-party state.
