A Guardian Essential poll of 1,017 voters conducted last week reveals that One Nation's primary vote has dropped two points to 26%, down from 28% in the previous month. Labor's primary vote increased by one point to 30%, while the Coalition remained unchanged at 23%. These movements fall within the margin of error but align with other recent polls, including Newspoll, Redbridge, and Roy Morgan, which also show a slight uptick for Labor and a decline for One Nation.
Voters Reject One Nation's Key Policies
Australians have overwhelmingly rejected several of One Nation's core proposals. Only 15% of respondents supported privatising the ABC, and just 11% agreed with shutting down SBS. Following Pauline Hanson's call for a "monoculture," only 20% supported ending multiculturalism. Similarly, 18% backed withdrawing from the United Nations, and 18% supported reviewing workplace laws to give employers more power. Slightly higher support was recorded for stopping abortion after 20 weeks (26%) and halting the renewables transition to focus on fossil fuels (25%).
On abortion, 29% of Australians said it should be legal in all cases, down 12% since November 2024. Another 42% said legal in most cases, while 19% said illegal in most cases and 9% said illegal in all cases. Overall, 72% supported legal abortion in some or all cases, a 7% decrease, while 28% said it should be illegal in some or all cases, a 7% increase.
Concerns About Leadership and Backing
Despite the policy rejections, 52% of respondents said they would definitely (29%) or might (23%) vote for One Nation at the next election. In comparison, 50% said the same for Labor (27% definitely, 23% open), while only 18% definitely supported the Liberals and 8% the Nationals. However, 32% were open to voting Liberal and 36% open to voting Nationals, suggesting potential soft One Nation voters could be won back.
Among those open to or definitely voting for One Nation, the key driver was immigration, followed by perceptions that major parties are not listening and a desire to give another politician a chance. The third-highest concern was the widening gap between rich and poor. However, 51% of all respondents expressed concern that One Nation lacks "a team of skilled people to run Australia." Additionally, 50% were worried about the party's backing by mining magnate Gina Rinehart, and 45% feared One Nation would "turn Australians against each other."
Net Approval Ratings for Leaders
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's net approval rating improved slightly but remains negative at minus-13, with approval at 38% and disapproval at 51%. Opposition leader Angus Taylor's net approval ticked up to minus-one, with approval at 36% and disapproval at 37%.
Peter Lewis, executive director of Essential Media, suggested that One Nation's poll numbers may be "plateauing" after a fortnight of media scrutiny following Hanson's press club speech. Despite the dip, One Nation's primary vote has consistently risen each month, and Hanson has recorded higher net approval ratings than either Albanese or Taylor.
