More than 2 million people are eligible to vote in the Greater Manchester mayoral byelection on 30 July, making it the largest byelection in British history. The contest to replace Andy Burnham, who is widely expected to become the next prime minister, will test the national mood and the strength of the main political parties.
Labour's Challenge Under Keir Starmer's Resignation
Labour is the clear favourite, but internal projections suggest its vote share could drop by at least 10 percentage points from Burnham's 63.4% in 2024. The party's candidate, Bev Craig, leader of Manchester city council, acknowledged the "sobering" loss of 108 councillors in local elections seven weeks ago, particularly in urban wards where the Greens gained 17 seats partly due to anger over Keir Starmer's position on Gaza.
Craig expressed confidence that with Starmer's resignation, protest voters will return to Labour. She has promised free bus travel for 11- to 18-year-olds and will unveil a new town centres fund next week.
Reform UK's Ambitions and Setbacks
Reform UK was the biggest winner in Greater Manchester in the May local elections, gaining 106 councillors and erasing Labour majorities in Wigan, Tameside, and Rochdale. However, Nigel Farage's party has suffered two humiliating defeats in parliamentary byelections in the region, and Farage faces scrutiny over a £5m donation from crypto tycoon Christopher Harborne and questions about his wealth.
A poll last week put Labour just three points ahead of Reform UK, within the margin of error, with the Green party in a distant third. However, the supplementary voting system may disadvantage Reform UK, as they are less likely to receive second-choice preferences.
Green Party's Rise
The Green party is aiming to turn its recent Manchester success into its first major seat of power. Candidate Geraldine Coggins said the party's "unprecedented" wins—including victories in Gorton and Denton, and securing 37% of the vote in Manchester—show voters believe it can beat the two big parties. The Greens came fifth in the 2024 mayoral contest with 7% of the vote, but now claim "It's Green or Reform in Greater Manchester."
Significance of the Byelection
Luke Tryl, executive director of the More in Common thinktank, described the byelection as "hugely significant on lots of levels." He noted that Andy Burnham's premiership would start poorly if Labour lost, and that the mayor controls a £3bn annual budget and powers over housing, health, policing, and transport in England's second city.
The contest will be decided by supplementary voting: if no candidate achieves 50%, second-choice preferences are counted. Labour is seen as having an advantage, as they are more likely to be the second choice of Green, Lib Dem, and even some Conservative voters.
