The race to succeed Andy Burnham as Greater Manchester mayor is heating up, with Labour, the Green Party, and Reform UK all eyeing the influential post after Burnham's victory in the Makerfield byelection. The election is set for 30 July, and the role has grown under Burnham to become one of the most powerful in British politics outside Westminster.
Labour's Frontrunner: Bev Craig
Labour has yet to select a candidate, but Bev Craig, leader of Manchester city council since 2021, is widely seen as the frontrunner. Paul Dennett, the interim mayor and Salford mayor, is not expected to stand. Craig is favoured by many in the party as a consistent presence who can benefit from Burnham's popularity and endorsement, potentially bringing back some of the 420,000 voters who supported Burnham in the last mayoral election.
However, outside Labour, there is scepticism that any candidate can replicate Burnham's appeal. A source close to the Greens said: "Like Gorton and Denton, the leadership is throwing everything at this because we really think we can win it. Without Burnham, Labour will struggle with candidates like Craig, who is a symbol of the things people don't like about the Labour party." The source added: "The brand of Andy Burnham massively outstrips the brand of the Labour party. So when you put another Labour politician on the ballot, there's no reason to think they'll get that Burnham bounce."
Green Party's Campaign
The Greens have already begun their campaign, printing over 50,000 leaflets for their candidate, Geraldine Coggins, a Trafford councillor confirmed on Saturday. Coggins, 50, worked alongside Gorton and Denton MP Hannah Spencer and succeeded her as party group leader after Spencer's byelection win. A Green source described Coggins as "someone who clearly represents something different to the politics of normal, while being very credible."
The election will use the supplementary vote (SV) system, where voters pick first and second choices. If no candidate wins over 50% initially, second-choice votes are counted for the top two. This system, used until 2022 when it was replaced by first past the post, was reinstated for this contest. Green officials believe SV may benefit them if voters choose them first and Labour second, but there is a risk they may not make the top two, leaving a Labour versus Reform UK battle.
Reform UK's Ambitions
Reform UK sees a strong chance to win, aiming to rebound from its Makerfield performance, where it got 15,696 votes—well below leader Nigel Farage's prediction of 18,000 and over 9,000 votes behind Burnham. The party has lost three consecutive byelections, coming second in Caerphilly, Gorton and Denton, and Makerfield, but each time with at least a 10% gap to the winner.
Reform is also wary of the threat from Restore Britain, the far-right party created by Rupert Lowe in 2025 after a falling out with Farage. The party has reportedly selected Marlon West, a 52-year-old campaigner against child sexual exploitation whose daughter was a victim of a grooming gang in Greater Manchester. Reform may field Dan Barker, who stood in the 2024 mayoral election, or Sian Astley, a Baguley councillor and party group leader on Manchester city council.
