World Enters Uncharted Territory as Nuclear Arms Control Framework Collapses
The international security landscape has shifted dramatically with the expiration of the last remaining nuclear arms control treaty between the United States and Russia. For the first time in more than half a century, there are now no legal limits governing the missile and warhead arsenals of the world's two nuclear superpowers, creating what experts describe as a dangerously unpredictable environment.
Historical Context: From Cold War Cooperation to Modern Breakdown
The framework for nuclear arms control between these global powers began in 1972 when US President Richard Nixon and Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev signed the first agreement aimed at slowing the arms race and preventing catastrophic misunderstandings. Even during the most tense periods of the Cold War, both nations maintained this crucial dialogue.
This cooperation continued with the 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) signed by President George H.W. Bush and Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev, which established verification mechanisms and required actual reductions in nuclear arsenals. The most recent agreement, New START, was signed in 2010 by President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, capping deployed strategic warheads at 1,550 per side and limiting delivery vehicles to 700.
Current Crisis: Treaty Expiration Without Replacement
The expiration of New START on Thursday marks the complete collapse of this decades-long arms control architecture. The breakdown in US-Russia relations following Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine prevented any meaningful negotiations for a replacement treaty. While Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed an informal 12-month extension, US President Donald Trump has not agreed to this arrangement.
Vasily Kashin, a research fellow at Moscow's Higher School of Economics, warned Sky News: "It's a serious situation. Probably now we can witness a lot of developments, especially in US nuclear policy, and the situation will be quite unpredictable. There is a real danger of a nuclear arms race in the coming years."
Diverging Perspectives on the Way Forward
The absence of arms control agreements has revealed fundamentally different approaches between the nuclear powers. President Trump has expressed interest in a new trilateral treaty that would include China, reflecting growing concerns about Beijing's nuclear capabilities. However, this proposal faces significant obstacles.
Nikolai Sokov, a former Soviet and Russian arms control negotiator, explained: "We never tried trilateral [talks] actually. The official Russian position and the official Chinese position is that negotiations can be bilateral between the United States and Russia, or they can be five-party, including the United Kingdom and France."
Implications for Global Security
While strategic stability won't change overnight, experts warn that the complete absence of nuclear arms control agreements represents a significant deterioration in international security mechanisms. The situation creates conditions where misunderstandings could escalate more rapidly and where both nations might feel compelled to accelerate nuclear weapons development programs.
The expiration of New START without any replacement agreement in place signals how profoundly US-Russia relations have deteriorated since the Cold War era when even bitter rivals maintained basic arms control frameworks. This development potentially makes the world a more dangerous place as we enter uncharted territory in nuclear weapons governance.
