Trump Shifts from Diplomacy to Regime Change in Iran
President Donald Trump, in collaboration with Israel, is actively pursuing regime change in Iran, marking a dramatic escalation despite recent positive diplomatic engagements. This all-or-nothing approach comes after initial negotiations showed promise, only to unravel rapidly amid growing tensions.
Diplomatic Efforts and Sudden Breakdown
Just thirty-six hours prior to the escalation, Trump's envoys were engaged in high-level talks with an Iranian delegation in Geneva, aimed at finding a diplomatic solution. Sources involved in these negotiations expressed optimism, indicating that both sides were nearing a provisional agreement, although significant gaps remained. Notably, Iran's ballistic missile program was not discussed during these talks, a point that deeply concerned Israel due to the direct threat these missiles pose.
In a last-ditch effort to sustain dialogue, Oman's Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi, who mediated the Geneva talks, flew to Washington on short notice to brief US Vice President JD Vance. Albusaidi subsequently gave rare interviews on US television to outline the negotiation terms, demonstrating a desperate attempt to keep communication channels open.
Signs of Unraveling and Imminent Conflict
However, signs of deterioration were already apparent. US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee issued an urgent email to embassy staff on Friday morning, advising them to leave the country immediately if desired, suggesting an unplanned evacuation rather than a controlled diplomatic move. This urgency hinted at imminent military action, possibly influenced by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's longstanding skepticism of negotiations.
British diplomats were relocated from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, mirroring actions taken during the 12 Day War in June. Western embassies and military outposts across the region evacuated non-essential staff, further indicating preparations for conflict. By late Friday evening, reports of a potential overnight attack circulated, with experienced observers noting the bleak outlook amid the chaotic information flow.
Escalation and Regional Implications
The situation has now escalated beyond diplomacy, with President Trump and Israel pushing for regime change in Iran. Despite Iran's reduced capacity to respond following last summer's attacks on its ballistic missile sites, strikes have been reported across the Middle East, extending beyond Israel. The Iranian regime is expected to resist fiercely, potentially dragging the region into a wider conflict as they refuse to capitulate.
This shift from negotiation to confrontation underscores the volatile nature of US-Iran relations and the high stakes involved, with global implications for stability in the Middle East.
