Missile and Interceptor Supplies Could Determine Middle East War Outcome
Fire erupted into the sky after the Fujairah oil facility in the United Arab Emirates was reportedly struck by debris from an intercepted Iranian drone on Tuesday. This incident underscores the escalating aerial warfare in the region, where analysts suggest the conflict's duration and result may hinge on a grim calculation: the size of Iran's drone and missile inventories versus the vital air defence munitions held by the United States, Israel, and Gulf states.
A Salvo Competition in the Skies
Since Saturday, Iran and its proxies have launched over 1,000 strikes across nearly a dozen countries spanning 1,200 miles, countering intensive joint US and Israeli offensives. With an antiquated air force unable to match those of Israel and the US, Tehran has relied heavily on its arsenal of missiles and drones, making this the widest Middle East conflict since World War II. Israeli and US aircraft have struck hundreds of sites in Iran without losing a plane, aiming to deplete Iran's missile stockpile and infrastructure.
Stacie Pettyjohn, director of the defense program at the Center for a New American Security in Washington, described the situation as "a bit of a salvo competition," where opposing forces exchange large volleys of precision-guided weapons. "The question is who has the deeper magazines of key weapons, and the big unknown is how deep Iran inventories are," Pettyjohn said.
Attrition and Strategic Calculations
Sirens sounded over Jerusalem on Tuesday as interceptor missiles destroyed incoming threats, but Iranian attacks on Israel have become less frequent in the past 36 hours, with 11 killed and over 100 injured since the war began. Analysts speculate Iran may be conserving missile reserves or facing operational challenges. Pettyjohn noted, "Iran has fewer weapons that can range Israel than hit the Persian Gulf, and a lot of drones heading to Israel are being intercepted. There may also be an amount of disarray that the Iranians are dealing with as they are suffering decapitation strikes and so are not operating in a coordinated way."
Tehran's strategy appears focused on wearing down enemies by undermining civilian morale and increasing financial costs. Tal Inbar, a senior research fellow at the Missile Defence Advisory Alliance in Israel, emphasized, "There is no such thing as 100% defence. It's a war of attrition ... If a single missile strikes something like a university, a hospital or a power plant it can be very costly." Past conflicts have shown that air defence missile shortages can limit war duration, highlighting the critical need for interceptors.
Gulf States Under Pressure
The United Arab Emirates issued a statement on Tuesday denying reports of interceptor missile shortages, asserting "a robust strategic stockpile of munitions, ensuring sustained interception and response capabilities over extended periods." The UAE reported destroying 161 out of 174 ballistic missiles launched toward the country, with the rest falling into the sea, and intercepting 645 out of 689 Iranian drones, along with destroying eight cruise missiles, causing some collateral damage.
Iranian strikes have also targeted US and civilian sites in Qatar, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait, Iraq, Bahrain, and Oman, with international hotels in Dubai set alight and oil infrastructure damaged in Saudi Arabia. Qatar stated it successfully intercepted most aerial threats, including two fighter jets, three cruise missiles, 98 ballistic missiles, and 24 drones.
Economic and Strategic Implications
Kelly Grieco, a strategic and military analyst at the Stimson Center in Washington, noted the difficulty in assessing Gulf inventories, warning, "It is very hard to know the level of inventories in the Gulf but they are burning through a lot of them and soon there will be some difficult decisions to make about what to protect." Iran's strategy of smaller, sustained salvoes aims to prolong the conflict, exploiting the high costs of defence.
The expense of these weapons is significant; Grieco estimates intercepting a drone costs five times more than producing one. Stockpiles of advanced US-made munitions are limited and replenished slowly, with high demand from other regions like Ukraine or Taiwan. Pettyjohn added that if air defences are depleted, it could push Israel and the US toward negotiations, while Gulf states continue to bear the brunt. "If Iran runs out of missiles ... they may just have to sue for peace and try to survive and eventually rebuild their capabilities over time," she concluded.
