Rovelli warns of nuclear apocalypse, argues against rearmament
Theoretical physicist Carlo Rovelli, in his new book 85 Seconds to Midnight, argues that the world is closer to nuclear catastrophe than ever, with leaders lacking the wisdom of past statesmen like John F. Kennedy and Nikita Khrushchev. He opposes rearmament by European NATO members against Russia, calling the threat of Russian invasion "ridiculous."
Rovelli, 70, points out that Russia has 4,000 nuclear warheads, the largest stockpile globally, but argues its conventional military threat is overstated. "Russia can't even get to Kyiv!" he says. "A few years ago, Russia had 4% of the world's military spending and NATO had 40%." He emphasizes mutual fear as the core problem, stating, "We are trapped in a lack of reciprocal trust. We sleepwalk through these patterns of everybody becoming more armed, more aggressive."
Bombing of Russia with Western weapons escalates risks
Rovelli cites recent Ukrainian strikes on St Petersburg and Moscow using NATO-supplied weapons as a dangerous escalation. "It's the first time a [superpower] with nuclear weapons has been actually bombed," he notes. From the Kremlin's perspective, this fuels longstanding fears of Western aggression, dating back to the 1962 Cuban missile crisis when US missiles in Turkey prompted Soviet missiles in Cuba.
He argues that Russian President Vladimir Putin's fear of Ukraine joining NATO—which would allow Western nuclear weapons near Russia—drove the 2022 invasion. This has triggered calls for rearmament in Western Europe, with France, Britain, and Germany preparing their populations for war. Rovelli dismisses this as "nonsense."
Fear as a driver of conflict, from WWII to today
Rovelli draws parallels to the Second World War, noting that Hitler's Mein Kampf was rooted in fear of weakness, not strength. "What fueled the violence of nazism was fear," he says. Similarly, he contends that fear drives both Israeli and Hamas aggression in the Middle East. "To answer fear with fear, to escalate, seems to me disgusting."
When asked about Putin's historical ambitions, Rovelli dismisses them: "You create these narratives that fuel tribal ideology. I don't think anybody has any natural historical right to anything."
Physicists' role in nuclear weapons and disarmament
Rovelli acknowledges that physicists created nuclear weapons—"our poisoned gift to humankind"—but argues their voices have been effective in raising awareness. He credits scientists and intellectuals for convincing Mikhail Gorbachev and Ronald Reagan to sign the 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START). However, he also notes disastrous outcomes, such as Enrico Fermi's 1934 work on atomic nuclei, which enabled nuclear energy and weapons.
He recounts a 1941 meeting between Niels Bohr and Werner Heisenberg, where Bohr misinterpreted a sketch of a nuclear reactor as an atomic bomb design, fueling the Manhattan Project. This led to the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, which Rovelli calls "the burning alive of 200,000 men, women and children." He rejects the justification that it saved American lives, calling it "disgusting."
Personal history and views on Iran
Rovelli's opposition to rearmament stems partly from his student days in Italy, where he was jailed for refusing the draft. "I'm Italian and we remember fascism grew with the idea that war is beautiful," he says. On Iran, he argues that if it did not feel threatened, it likely would not seek nuclear weapons.
The book's title refers to the 2026 Doomsday Clock setting of 85 seconds to midnight, the closest ever. Rovelli believes current leaders—from Trump, Putin, and Netanyahu to NATO and Iranian leaders—lack the wisdom of Khrushchev, Kennedy, Gorbachev, and Reagan, who helped avert Armageddon. He concludes by asking, "What politician has the courage to say, 'Rather than making my own country stronger, I want to make humankind better'?"
