Australians Grapple with Rising National Security Fears as Study Reveals Widespread Anxiety
A groundbreaking report from the Australian National University's National Security College has unveiled a significant surge in national security concerns among Australians, with nearly half anticipating a foreign military attack on the country within the next five years. The study, which surveyed over 20,000 individuals through polls and focus groups conducted between November 2024 and February 2026, indicates a dramatic shift in public sentiment, particularly among younger demographics.
Sharp Increase in Worry Among Young Adults
The research highlights that three in five Australians are now worried about national security, marking a substantial increase from previous years. The most pronounced rise was observed in the 18 to 24-year-old cohort, where 55% expressed concern about national security in February 2026, up from just 22% in November 2024. This age group, often considered less engaged with defense issues, has shown the sharpest escalation in anxiety, reflecting broader societal tensions.
Australians' fears extend beyond traditional military threats to include AI-enabled attacks, disinformation campaigns, critical supply disruptions, climate change impacts, foreign interference, and severe economic crises. An overwhelming 85% or more of respondents believe these events are likely to occur by the end of the decade, underscoring a pervasive sense of vulnerability.
Concerns Over Overseas Military Involvement and Domestic Threats
Key findings reveal that 69% of those polled in July 2025 consider Australia's involvement in an overseas military conflict likely to almost certain within five years. Additionally, while an onshore attack by a foreign military ranked lowest in perceived likelihood, 45% still viewed it as likely, very likely, or almost certain within half a decade when questioned last July. Such an attack was rated the greatest concern, with 43% of respondents fearing it would have major consequences and 36% regarding it as catastrophic.
Worry over domestic terrorism has also intensified, with 72% of respondents rating such events as a serious concern in February 2026, following the Bondi attack, compared to 55% in November 2024. This spike indicates a growing apprehension about internal security challenges alongside external threats.
Perceived Lack of Preparedness and Global Context
The study suggests that most Australians feel the country is ill-prepared to handle these threats. More than half of those surveyed believed Australia was slightly prepared or not at all for scenarios like a foreign military attack, severe economic crisis, critical infrastructure attack, or supply disruption. Professor Rory Medcalf, head of the National Security College, emphasized that the results show Australians are deeply concerned and seek more information, stating, "In a time when our security landscape is changing, it would be wrong to assume that Australians are complacent."
This report's release coincides with global fuel supply disruptions due to the latest Middle East war, which have sent prices skyrocketing. Federal Energy Minister Chris Bowen recently disclosed that six oil ships bound for Australia were cancelled or deferred, acknowledging potential "bumps in supply" in the coming months despite government efforts to secure replacements. This context adds urgency to the national security discourse, highlighting interconnected economic and defense vulnerabilities.
